U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon 49% to 45% in a new St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics, her widest lead in three surveys by the pollster.
The sample is weighted 12 points Republican. Ballots cast through Tuesday morning run Republican by less than one.
Another 3% picked someone else and 4% are undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
Republicans outnumber Democrats on the rolls by roughly 1.5 million, 5.69 million to 4.15 million at the Oct. 5 book closing, with 3.35 million more registered to no party. The rolls are R+8. The sample is R+12.
St. Pete Polls’ mid-September survey had the race tied at 45%. Its Oct. 5-7 survey had Moody ahead 47% to 45%. Undecided voters have gone from 7% to 6% to 4%.
Nixon leads 56% to 41% among respondents who have already voted. Moody leads 57% to 34% among those who have not. Three in five Republican respondents said they had not voted yet. Fewer than half of Democrats said the same.
Through Tuesday morning, Republicans had cast 40% of the 3.15 million ballots returned statewide and Democrats 39%, per the Division of Elections. Voters outside the two parties cast the other 21%. Democrats also hold more of the mail ballots still in circulation, 403,076 to 324,499. In 2022, Republicans had out-voted Democrats by about 177,000 ballots at the same point in the calendar.
Reweighted to R+10, the same responses give Moody 48% to 45%. At the registration split, it is 47% to 46%.
Nixon leads independents 53% to 36%, up from 49% to 36% in the October survey and 50% to 37% in September. Moody holds 84% of Republicans, up from 82%. Nixon holds 83% of Democrats, unchanged.
Men back Moody 50% to 43% after favoring Nixon 48% to 45% in October. Women back Moody 49% to 45%.
Voters 70 and older back Moody 66% to 29%. Nixon leads voters under 30 by 64% to 28%, those 30 to 49 by 52% to 39%, and those 50 to 69 by 48% to 46%.
White voters favor Moody 59% to 35%. Black voters favor Nixon 77% to 17%, and Hispanic voters favor her 51% to 41%.
Moody leads the Tampa market 51% to 42%, Jacksonville 52% to 39%, Orlando 50% to 44%, West Palm Beach 48% to 46%, and Fort Myers 62% to 33%. Nixon leads Miami 49% to 46%.
The University of North Florida’s survey released last week had the same numbers, Moody 49% to 45%.
St. Pete Polls surveyed 916 likely voters Oct. 25-27 for Florida Politics, using automated phone calls for 71% of responses and peer-to-peer text messages for 29%. Respondents were drawn at random from the state’s registered voter file as of Oct. 14. Results were weighted by political party, race, age, gender, and media market to match Florida’s active voter population. The weighted sample is 43% Republican, 31% Democratic, and 27% other. Voters who said they do not plan to vote in the General Election were excluded. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
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Ed. note: This story was drafted with assistance from AI. Editorial judgment, sourcing, and final review were performed by Peter Schorsch and the Florida Politics editorial team.
