The 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby, taking place this Saturday evening, is shaping up to be a wide-open affair. The two favorites to win, as set by Churchill Downs morning-line oddsmakers, both have big question marks on their record.
Renegade, the Arkansas Derby winner, had the bad luck of getting the 1 post in the 20-horse field; no runner from that slot has won the Kentucky Derby since Ferdinand in 1986. Further Ado, meanwhile, ran a monster race last time out in winning the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, a track he seems to relish — and though he has run and won elsewhere, those efforts were not nearly as flashy or fast.
The Kentucky Derby is arguably the best betting race in America; the gigantic 20-horse field usually results in great odds for almost every runner. This year’s running is no exception; the favorite Renegade is 4-1, with Further Ado tied with Florida Derby winner Commandment with 6-1 odds. Chances are the winner of the race, whoever it will be, will net at least $10 on a $2 win wager.
So who do you like? Let’s take a closer look…
The 152nd Kentucky Derby
Saturday, May 2
Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
Purse: $5 million
Distance: 1 ¼ Miles on dirt
Conditions: 3-year-old colts and geldings
Post time: 6:57 p.m. ET
TV: NBC/Peacock
The field
Note: Also-eligible horses (AE), 21-24, may only run in the Kentucky Derby field if there are up to four scratches before 9 a.m. Friday morning.
How the race sets up
One thing about this field is the apparent lack of blistering front-running speed. Just a handful of horses look prime to go to the lead, and most of the field consists of horses who do their best running late and from further back in the field.
Expect Potente, Six Speed, Litmus Test and Pavlovian to engage each other on the front end when the gates open. Things could get hot enough early on, but there’s nothing about any of their profiles to suggest they will run a torrid first quarter or half. Renegade, despite having that dreaded inside post, can hang further back and find a good ground-saving spot on the rail. Further Ado, as a stalker, should be able to get a decent position just off the leaders, though may be floated wide as they enter the clubhouse turn.
Other stalkers that may sit off the lead early include Chief Wallabee, The Puma, So Happy, Danon Bourbon, Emerging Market, Wonder Dean, but the more in the middle of the field they are, they could experience trouble getting in and around the traffic.
With a moderate tempo, the closing horses – Renegade, Commandment, and Fulleffort among them – will make their moves along with the stalkers on the far turn. Six Speed, Litmus Test and Potente will likely backpedal, with Pavlovian likely the last to give way at the head of the stretch. From there, it becomes a stampede in the last quarter-mile, with about eight different horses giving their all. What will separate them is their late stamina and speed, and whether they can avoid any traffic that may get in their way.
How will it end? Here’s how we see it…
Kentucky Derby predictions
Fulleffort – The race looks prime for a big upset; think of a horse of 10-1 or better. Fulleffort is one to consider. Yes, he’s never run on dirt before; that’s the biggest question mark. However, the rest of his resume is impressive, including five straight races finishing first or second, including a win last out on synthetic in the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park. His speed figures have increased with every race he’s run this year. Fulleffort ripped off two solid workouts over the Churchill Downs dirt main track over the past two weeks. His pedigree has strong dirt form (sire Liam’s Map, a Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner, and grandsire Awesome Again, a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner). Connections are legit in trainer Brad Cox and jockey Tyler Gaffalione. Something about his profile suggests he’s going to run very well on the Churchill Downs dirt, and may take a big step forward in speed. At the very least, include him in your exotics.
Commandment – If a longshot doesn’t win this one, then Commandment will. His Florida campaign was nothing short of impressive, capped off with a thrilling win in the Florida Derby over The Puma, catching him right on the wire. Commandment has the tactical speed to rate off a slower pace or close from further behind a hot one. Another Cox trainee, he’s the only horse in the field to run two races with back-to-back triple-digit Beyer speed figures. The only puzzling thing is that he will have his fourth different jockey in five races, with Luis Saez getting the mount in the Kentucky Derby. Definitely not a deal breaker, by any stretch; Saez is one of the best riders in the country.
So Happy – The Santa Anita Derby winner last out took a big step forward to qualify for the Run for the Roses, and is also one not to overlook. The horse has plenty of talent and tactical speed to contend, but perhaps the best reason to like him are his connections. Jockey Mike Smith, who won the Triple Crown aboard Justify in 2018, will look to become the oldest rider ever to win the Kentucky Derby at 62 years of age; by comparison, Bill Shoemaker won the Derby aboard Ferdinand at 52. Then there’s the trainer, Mark Glatt, who saddles his first Kentucky Derby winner just weeks after his wife’s tragic death. So Happy will likely be the sentimental favorite among many this Saturday.
Renegade – The favorite can’t be totally ruled out here, and if anyone can break a 40-year post position jinx, it is jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and this impressive son of Into Mischief who has taken big steps forward in his two wins this year. His best days are still ahead of him, and you can put him down as a favorite for the Belmont Stakes right now. So why won’t he win the Kentucky Derby? Certainly, the one post does him no favors – too much traffic in a 20-horse field, too many things can go wrong for a horse on the inside. But more than that, the lack of a hot pace to run at may foil his efforts at overcoming the field late. He’s also a little erratic in running, drifting out and weaving in the Oaklawn Park stretch in the Arkansas Derby. All this being said, he’s a worthy favorite and if you want to pick him, by all means go for it.
Picks: 20 (Fulleffort), 6 (Commandment), 8 (So Happy), 1 (Renegade)
