Polling in the Florida Governor’s race showing Democrats within the margin of error or up?
Speculation that Republicans will lose at least one statewide office?
Bill Clinton at campaign events?
At times, the 2026 Election cycle has made Florida feel like it has returned to its old reputation as “America’s largest swing state.”
There was a time when Tim Russert wrote just one state name on his little dry-erase board and accurately predicted when the fate of a nation hung on Florida’s razor-thin margins, or even just eight years ago, three statewide races went to recounts in a single year. Florida mattered most in November, not August.
With Democratic gubernatorial nominee David Jolly and U.S. Senate nominee Angie Nixon drawing national donors, consultants across Florida are asking whether the state has truly gone purple or if this is simply a strong Democratic year.
To Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried, it’s clearly the former.
“There’s a level of energy and enthusiasm in Florida that we haven’t seen in years, and that’s the result of several factors coming together. We’ve spent the last three and a half years putting in the work, strengthening our party’s infrastructure, organizing year-round, and supporting strong candidates who are showing up in communities that have been overlooked for far too long,” Fried said.
As the face of her party and the last Democrat to win statewide office — Fried long argued the state could always be a battleground with the right candidates and strategy.
Unsurprisingly, Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power believes Fried is altogether wrong. He acknowledged Republicans have to put in work this year, but that’s politics. Even in red states, sometimes winning takes effort. But asked if Florida has gone purple, Power pushes back.
“No, Midterms when you are the party in power are always tough,” he said. ”We will win and continue building the conservative beacon of freedom.”
Certainly, Florida’s competitive climate isn’t an outlier. Competitive races in the current environment include Senate contests in Kansas and South Carolina. Whatever may be happening in this year’s races, Republicans enjoy massive, fundamental advantages in Florida unlike ever before.
At the close of voter registration for this year’s General Election, Florida reported nearly 5.69 million registered Republicans and fewer than 4.15 million Democrats, out of 13.7 million voters. In 2018, when the Governor’s race was last an open seat, Democrats still outnumbered Republicans statewide.
This cycle shares similarities with 2018. The country is midway through a Donald Trump presidency. Republicans control Congress, though polls suggest that may change. A national blue wave appears to be building. Yet in 2018, Florida bucked the trend, electing a Republican Governor and replacing a Democratic Senator in a close but decisive vote.
Despite these structural advantages, Republicans may be facing stronger headwinds. Before polls opened, GOP voters accounted for 40.16% of votes already cast by mail or early voting, while Democrats made up 37.79%. That is a notable underperformance for the state’s largest party.
In the post-COVID era, that was not expected. During the pandemic, Gov. Ron DeSantis’ anti-lockdown policies reshaped the state, drawing conservatives to what became known as the ‘Free State of Florida.’
But Susan MacManus, a University of South Florida professor emeritus, said it’s wrong to mistake the COVID transplants as partisans.
“A lot of people were working-class people with kids that didn’t want lockdowns for their school kids. A lot of young people moved in here and got jobs, a great environment and living,” MacManus said.
Voters drawn by DeSantis’ anti-lockdown stance supported Republicans in 2022, helping the Governor win re-election by a landslide. Since then, their economic circumstances have shifted. Inflation, higher home insurance costs, and rising unemployment are putting pressure on the working class in 2026.
It is not only Democrats and academics who see these voters as potentially moving away from Republicans. Terry Miller, a longtime Republican consultant in Fort Myers, says not every registered Republican is part of the base. Six months ago, Miller said most Republicans saw Byron Donalds as a lock for Governor. Now, he expects a close race.
Is that the new normal? A little too soon to tell, he said.
“Sincerely, I don’t know that answer. I do believe it’s more systemic to current events than an overarching political movement,” he said. “But I think what it also shows you is that the independent voters, or the soft, and by soft I mean the folks that don’t typically vote in their party’s Primary but vote in at least some of their General Elections, they are more malleable based on events. They vote with their pocketbook, and they vote with emotion far more than your Republican and Democrat super-voters.”
Orlando-based Democratic consultant Nicholas Thurston says this year feels more competitive, though some recent contests have been as well. He helped Democrat Tom Keen win a Special Election for a state House seat in 2024, only to see Republicans reclaim it within the year. He believes Democrats can win it back on Tuesday. Now, he is asking whether Florida can become a true bellwether.
“I see it flowing with the top of the ticket,” Keen said of Florida. When Republicans win the day, expect Florida to go Republican, but in a Democratic year, expect the opposite.
He notes that despite the GOP voter surge after COVID, the group of voters growing at the steadiest clip remains those with no party affiliation. That’s a sign Florida will become more competitive over time, and more focused on economic issues than the social and philosophical ones that have driven Florida politics in the last couple of election cycles.
Ultimately, Florida is “somewhat purple,” Keen says. That label fit the pre-pandemic era, when Florida was always in play but typically favored Republicans. Even during its swing state years, Florida did not elect Democratic Governors. The last time a Democrat won the Governor’s office was in 1994, when Lawton Chiles defeated Jeb Bush.
Fried, of course, hopes to change that bit of history tonight. And once Florida gets re-established as a battleground, Democrats need to put in work to keep it that way, she said.
“Floridians are frustrated with the direction of our state and our country. Families are struggling with the rising costs of housing, groceries, insurance, and healthcare, and they want their elected leaders focused on the issues that affect their everyday lives. That frustration extends beyond Democrats, and we’re making a concerted effort to engage independent voters and people who haven’t traditionally felt represented by either party,” Fried said.
“It’s encouraging to see renewed national attention and investment in Florida, but we also recognize that there’s still a lot of work to be done. We’ve made significant progress in rebuilding our party’s infrastructure and expanding our reach across the state, and we’re committed to continuing that work long after Election Day. Building a competitive Florida takes time, consistency, and trust, and that’s exactly what we’ve been focused on.”
