Florida’s Primary is shaping up as a low-energy affair that could produce the weakest participation in several cycles.
As of Saturday, only about 1.66 million ballots had been returned through vote-by-mail and early voting combined, equaling just 12.3% of eligible voters statewide.
That figure already lags well behind the early and mail totals from recent Primaries, when 2.07 million ballots were cast that way in 2024, 2.36 million in 2022, and 2.9 million in 2020.
A sharp drop in vote-by-mail requests is a major driver, with requests cut roughly in half from the 2022 cycle after state law forced voters to reapply every even-numbered year instead of remaining on permanent lists.
Trump’s repeated attacks on mail ballots as “inherently corrupt” have further discouraged their use among Republican voters who once relied heavily on the option, particularly in this state.
Limited spending and urgency at the top of the ticket, where the Republican gubernatorial contest has lacked a true nail-biter dynamic, has done little to mobilize the broader electorate.
If final numbers stay on this trajectory, overall Primary turnout risks falling below the 22.4% recorded in 2024 and the 26% seen in 2022, marking a clear step backward for engagement in Florida elections.
Now, it’s on to our weekly game of winners and losers.
Winners
Honorable mention: Marco Rubio. It takes political agility to turn a debate over breakfast pastries into a national PR win, but Rubio managed to pull it off during a joint appearance with his wife, Jeanette, on “The Katie Miller Podcast”
Rather than leaning into diplomat speak, the Secretary of State and National Security Advisor offered up a relaxed charm offensive. When Rubio claimed he supported the administration’s “Make America Healthy Again” push, Jeanette immediately called him out on-air, revealing his actual diet consists of fast food and sugar. Rubio didn’t skip a beat, mounting a passionate defense of Pop-Tarts as “one of the great American innovations.”
Rubio also poked fun at Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s strict regimen, with Rubio insisting he has zero intention of traveling the globe with “a cooler full of sauerkraut.” Recounting a past low-carb attempt that triggered a “near-psychotic event,” Rubio joked that severe sugar withdrawal in his current role would have catastrophic results: walking into the Oval Office telling Donald Trump, “Mr. President, we must bomb, you know, Paraguay,” simply because he was irritable without his fix.
This is all happening, of course, with 2028 chatter in the background. Justified or not, Vice President JD Vance is serving as a polarizing figure even among the Republican base and influencer scene. Might someone like Rubio be able to win over a broader base of support?
So far, Rubio is giving off signs of a team player, with the common perception being Rubio will run on a ticket with Vance or not at all.
But Rubio has already sought the Oval Office before, so we know he’s aiming for the job. And a lot can still change in the next year — or less — when 2028 contenders will begin announcing their plans.
Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: Miami-Dade Democrats. The county’s Dems are performing well in the August Primary, hoping to reclaim an edge after recent cycles where Republicans closed the gap or pulled ahead.
As of Saturday, more than 136,000 Miami-Dade voters had returned vote-by-mail or early in-person ballots, with registered Democrats accounting for roughly 65,000 compared to about 48,000 from Republicans.
That produces a solid Democratic lead of just under 17,000 ballots and nearly 48% of the total so far, a sharper advantage than the 5-point edge Democrats held at a similar stage in 2022 and a full reversal from 2024, when Republicans briefly overtook them.
The strength is driven largely by vote-by-mail returns, where Democrats have consistently led by double-digit margins while early in-person voting remains more competitive.
Although Republicans now hold a modest registration edge in the county, Democratic voters are converting at a higher rate and dominating the early electorate in Florida’s most populous jurisdiction.
Whether this Primary enthusiasm signals a broader return to blue-leaning behavior in Miami-Dade will depend on Election Day turnout and the General Election. But the early numbers already mark a meaningful rebound for the party’s local base.
The biggest winner: Catalina Lauf. Trump delivered a decisive last-minute boost to Lauf in the crowded Republican Primary for Florida’s 19th Congressional District.
Just five days before votes are counted, Trump posted his complete and total endorsement of the former Commerce Department appointee on Truth Social, calling her an “America First Patriot” who has been with the movement from the beginning.
Lauf, who served in Trump’s first administration and now lives in Bonita Springs, immediately welcomed the high-profile support while emphasizing her commitment to Southwest Florida families.
“President Trump’s FIGHT is what first called me to public service,” Lauf said. “I joined his administration because I believed in President Trump’s leadership in MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN. I’m running for Congress because the families of Southwest Florida deserve a fighter in Washington who will put them FIRST.”
The endorsement arrives in an open-seat race to succeed Byron Donalds, who is running for Governor, and comes after Lauf had already secured backing from several members of Congress including U.S. Reps. Kat Cammack, Anna Paulina Luna and Greg Steube.
With recent polls showing her locked in a tight contest near the top of a large field, Trump’s intervention could be the thing that pushes her into a clear first place.
While Trump’s popularity is in the toilet, he still holds strong — though not universal — sway among the Republican base. And given the aforementioned low turnout in Florida this year, that could be enough to give Lauf the nomination.
Losers
Dishonorable mention: Ken Welch. The incumbent St. Petersburg Mayor is struggling to keep pace in a crowded field where former Gov. Charlie Crist has built an overwhelming financial and polling lead heading into Tuesday’s Primary.
Crist has now raised more than $2 million across his campaign and political committee, more than four times Welch’s combined total of under $500,000, while also maintaining a cash-on-hand edge that leaves the Mayor with far less firepower for last-minute outreach.
Recent campaign finance reports show Crist pouring hundreds of thousands into advertising and mailers in the final stretch, roughly doubling Welch’s spending on voter contact and further amplifying the disparity.
Polls have consistently placed Crist well ahead of the field, with Welch stuck in second place at levels that leave him vulnerable to being overtaken by City Council Member Brandi Gabbard.
If no candidate clears 50% on Tuesday, only the top two advance to the November runoff, and Welch’s limited resources raise the real possibility that he could finish outside that cutoff.
That’s an uncomfortable place to be as an incumbent, and is a glaring sign that even if he makes it to November, his tenure leading the city will likely end there.
Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: Jay Collins, Paul Renner. Neither candidate ever generated genuine momentum in the Republican Primary for Governor, despite institutional pedigrees that should have positioned them better.
Collins entered the contest with the advantage of a DeSantis appointment as Lieutenant Governor and a compelling Green Beret combat record. Yet independent surveys consistently left him mired in the low double digits or worse while Byron Donalds maintained a commanding lead.
The Collins campaign internal numbers claimed higher figures and a two-man race. But those outliers never aligned with the broader public polling average and, barring some jaw-dropping surprise Tuesday, never showed he was a real threat to defeating Donalds.
Renner, the former House Speaker who helped shape the Free State of Florida brand alongside DeSantis, likewise failed to convert legislative experience or Navy service into voter support, registering only single-digit results that placed him last among the top-tier names.
Both men spent months insisting the race remained fluid and that Donalds, the Trump-backed front-runner, was vulnerable. But neither closed the gap in fundraising or name recognition enough to threaten the outcome.
And even worse, it’s entirely likely both will trail internet troll James Fishback, whose outsider, flamethrowing message carved out a modest second-place niche in multiple surveys.
That would be a sobering result for two figures who should have been favorites to inherit the DeSantis mantle.
The biggest loser: Marshall Rawson. The House District 10 candidate is facing well-deserved blowback after our own Jesse Scheckner detailed his lengthy associations with the League of the South.
The group has long been designated a hate organization by the Southern Poverty Law Center and the Anti-Defamation League for its White nationalist and Southern secessionist ideology. The Hampton citrus farmer and Greater Melrose Republican Liberty Caucus Chair appeared as a featured speaker at the group’s 2021 Florida Freedom Conference alongside its founder, who has openly embraced white supremacy and antisemitism.
Earlier online activity linked to Rawson included promotions of secession, immigration restrictions framed around Southern workers, and displays of League-branded materials.
Democratic leaders in Alachua and Baker counties have now publicly called out at least 14 local elected officials who endorsed Rawson, demanding they explain how they can support a candidate with those documented ties while claiming to represent their entire communities.
The controversy arrived just days before the Primary, where Rawson faces Chase Brannan for the Republican Primary whose winner will likely claim the open seat. Voters will do well to look into Rawson’s background before deciding whether he’s fit to represent them in Tallahassee.
