Eight years ago, Florida had three statewide recounts, including in the Governor’s race.
Could history repeat in November?
Having secured the nomination, the Democratic Governors Association is pushing polling showing Democrat David Jolly with a margin-of-error edge over Republican Byron Donalds, suggesting that 2026 will look much more like 2018 than Gov. Ron DeSantis‘ laugher re-election win four years ago.
The survey, conducted by Hart Research Associates, finds Jolly up 46% to 45% in an R+12 sample that approximates the state’s Republican registration lean.
The pollsters contrast Donalds’ “polarizing image and a weak standing with key voting blocs – including independents” with Jolly’s “crossover” appeal to “Hispanic voters, white women, and independents.”
According to the Democratic pollsters, Donalds is underwater with voters at large, with 43% unfavorability against 40% favorability. They claim 48% of independents disapprove of the Donald Trump-backed Congressman, with just 34% approval.
The pollsters claim that 18% of Republicans say they will crossover to vote for Jolly, compared to just 7% of Democrats open to backing Donalds.
Jolly spent part of his victory speech emphasizing his “old-school Republican” and “libertarian” leanings, vowing to put local control over the culture wars that have dominated the DeSantis era.
Negative messaging was also tested. The pollsters say that Donalds’ position on data centers and his wife and his “profiting from a network of charter schools they founded while student achievement lagged” raise major doubts with nearly 2/3 of voters at large, and 3/4 of independents.
It remains to be seen how committed Republicans are to crossing over when it counts.
Even after a pitched Primary, all of Donalds’ opponents congratulated him, suggesting that voters may yet come home to the GOP brand and that 18% crossover is ultimately an aspirational number forged at the end of a brutal intra-party war.
Donalds also holds a massive cash advantage, and will spend tens of millions of dollars painting Jolly as a radical and a tool of the left flank of the Democratic Party he joined in recent years. If those appeals succeed, they would certainly tamp down that crossover current.
600 likely voters were polled between Aug. 10 and 13 for this survey that is friendlier to Democrats than public polls, in which Donalds leads by an average of six points.
