For the last few cycles, as Florida moved away from becoming a swing state, we’ve been wondering what the new “normal” is here. Tuesday helped us answer that question.
Anyone reading this likely knows the history of Republicans largely dominating statewide races this century, but several of them being razor-thin (see the 2000 Presidential Election and numerous races for Governor).
That was the state up through the 2020 Presidential Election when President Donald Trump beat Joe Biden here by just over 3 points, seemingly strengthening the Republican lean while not removing the state entirely from Democrats’ grasp.
Then Gov. Ron DeSantis won re-election by more than 19 points just two years later. Then-U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio won by more than 16 that same year.
Yes, voter registration numbers were moving the GOP’s way, but did Florida really go from an R+3 state to R+18 or so in two years? Florida was red, but that red? Likely not. The number appeared driven up by DeSantis’ then sky-high popularity. But how much did he move voters? What was “normal”?
In 2024, the margin for Trump and U.S. Sen. Rick Scott was around 13 points. Still dominant, but was that the new baseline? Something lower? Higher?
On Tuesday, with every advantage tilted toward Democrats, the margins fell back to around 2 or 3 points statewide (precisely what this column predicted last week).
That would seem to put the natural Republican advantage here at around 10 points. It can swing 7 or 8 points toward Republicans in a good year or 7 or 8 points against them in a bad one. But that seems to be a reasonable starting point.
And it’s one that may inform whether national Democrats give a little more help here in 2028.
That’s been the call from some Democrats, noting that many high-profile races came up just short (more on that later) without strong national investment. Give more help in 2028, they argue, and Democrats can get over the hump.
Maybe that was true this cycle. But a focus on 2028 also assumes a similar wind at Democrats’ backs in 2028, and we’re not sure that’s going to be the case given that Democrats will now control Congress. There’s bound to be persistent voter frustration, and rightly so, given the continuing affordability issues here and around the U.S. But Republicans will likely no longer be the sole target.
Should national Democrats focus their funds on Florida as opposed to other states that actually flipped blue, like Texas, Ohio and more?
There’s plenty of time to decide, and a lot can change in two years. But if the question is whether Democrats should invest the resources to overcome a 10-point deficit from the word go, it may be the case that their money is spent elsewhere and these near misses are the best Democrats can really do until more sizable shifts in voter patterns occur.
And who knows: Given that Florida was seemingly the only swingy state that stayed red, the shift may very well be even more Republicans pouring into the state and only further cementing the GOP’s hold.
Now, it’s on to our weekly game of winners and losers.
Winners
Honorable mention: Christine Hunschofsky and House Dems. House Democrats walked out of Election Night with roughly 50 seats, breaking the Republican supermajority in the House.
And putting a slight dent in the GOP’s grip on power isn’t the only reason to celebrate. Democrats will also enter the chamber with the most seats since the GOP took over in the late ’90s.
For the first time in years, Democrats in the House have some leverage. Credit to Leader-designate Christine Hunschofsky, who led the House Democrats’ campaign operation this cycle. Her team recruited candidates who fit their districts and made sure they had the money to compete. And that’s without major national investment.
Central Florida was a bright spot for the blue team. Democrats flipped six seats in the region, and Seminole County went completely blue.
It wasn’t a perfect night for Democrats. State Rep. Emily Gregory, who flipped House District 87 — home to Trump — in a Special Election earlier this year, lost to Republican Jon Maples.
But one loss doesn’t alter the big picture.
Yes, Republicans will still run the House. House Speaker-designate Sam Garrison has a comfortable majority to work with and a Republican Governor ready to sign whatever legislation they pass. They just won’t be able to steamroll Democrats like they have the past several years.
Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: Republican statewide candidates. It was a clean sweep, but just barely.
Every Republican on the statewide ballot won Tuesday. Despite a blue tsunami eclipsing every swing state in the U.S. — and beyond — there was no repeat of 2018 in Florida, when Matt Caldwell lost the Agriculture Commissioner race to Nikki Fried by a few thousand votes while the rest of the ticket held on.
U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody beat Angie Nixon by roughly 3 points. The win by Byron Donalds (more on him later) and the three Cabinet contests were even tighter. Attorney General James Uthmeier, Chief Financial Officer Blaise Ingoglia and Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson each won by about 2 points over José Javier Rodríguez, Annette Taddeo and Joey Mendoza Atkins, respectively.
For Uthmeier and Ingoglia, both appointed by DeSantis last year, it was their first time winning a statewide office in their own right. Now they each get a full term.
None of them cruised, though none of them ran a sloppy race either. In a year when races throughout the country broke hard toward Democrats, that discipline mattered.
So did the property tax amendment, which DeSantis credits with saving the ticket. Amendment 3 passed with about 62%, clearing the 60% bar the polls said it couldn’t reach. DeSantis argued that voters showed up to vote “yes,” then kept voting Republican down the ballot.
Yes, things were tighter than Republicans would have wanted. But Uthmeier and Ingoglia got four-year terms and some security that 2030 will be a more favorable environment for the GOP, allowing Florida’s built-in Republican advantage to carry the day. (Simpson won’t be able to run again in 2030 due to term limits.)
Moody, meanwhile, will be on the ballot again in two years, as Tuesday’s election only decided who would serve the final two years of now-Secretary of State Rubio’s Senate term.
Still, one has to wonder whether the anti-GOP sentiment will be as strong with Democrats now taking control of Congress. Anything can happen two years out, but Moody may have already survived her biggest hurdle.
The biggest winner: Donalds. Donalds is Florida’s next Governor. He beat David Jolly by less than 2 points, a margin of about 108,000 votes out of more than 8 million cast. That was closer than Republicans have gotten used to, but a win is a win.
It’s also history. When Donalds is sworn in this January, he’ll be Florida’s first Black Governor, completing his rise from state legislator to Congressman to almost Speaker to leading one of the largest and most talked about states in the country.
A lot of credit also goes to the team that got him here. Chief Strategist Ryan Smith, Campaign Manager Chris Hudson and Senior Adviser Brad Herold (now in line to be Donalds’ Chief of Staff) were on board long before Donalds formally jumped in. Add Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio, a ground game the campaign says knocked on more than 2 million doors, and more than $174 million raised.
It took a team effort to stand out and secure a win compared to how Republicans performed in the rest of the country. Polls tightened, forecasters started shifting the race toward Jolly, and national Democrats came running with Bill Clinton in tow. Team Donalds kept their heads down and came out on top.
Then there’s Erika Donalds. She’s a former Collier County School Board member and one of the most prominent school choice advocates in the country. She was also there at the very start of her husband’s political career, filming his first speech at a 2010 tea party rally after nudging him to give it. On Tuesday night, she was among the first people Donalds thanked.
He won the race and made history. Now comes the hard part: governing in a period where voters have shown they’re tired of the Trump era.
Losers
Dishonorable mention: Your vacation plans. We survived the ads, the texts and the mailers. And with all the votes counted and the smoke from the fallout clearing, it’s finally time to take that trip we’ve been putting off since Labor Day.
Sike!
The 2028 race started damn near before Florida’s polls even closed in the Panhandle.
DeSantis spent this week on what appeared to be a victory lap. He called the national results a meteor strike for Republicans and held Florida up as the one big state that held the line for his side.
The betting markets are responding. DeSantis’ odds of winning the 2028 Republican nomination jumped about 14 points in a single day on Kalshi, putting him within striking distance of Rubio.
Rubio, of course, has his own buzz. One House Republican endorsed him for President the day after the election. And reports have said Rubio could leave the Trump administration to focus on a run, though Rubio has sharply denied those claims.
Vice President JD Vance didn’t waste any time either. He put out a lengthy statement Wednesday morning blaming the Iran war for the GOP’s losses, which is a bold move when your boss started the war.
And let’s not forget the impending Special Session to implement Amendment 3.
The point is, the dreams of relaxing several months before the 2027 Legislative Session appear dead. Iowa caucus previews start now.
Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: Republican legislative candidates. We already covered what Tuesday looked like from the Democrats’ side. Now for the reverse view.
At least 10 Republican Florida House incumbents lost their seats. State Reps. Doug Bankson and Rachel Plakon both went down in Central Florida. In Palm Beach County, state Reps. Anne Gerwig and Meg Weinberger lost. In Hillsborough County, state Rep. Danny Alvarez was ousted, and in Osceola County, state Rep. Erika Booth was too. State Reps. Hilary Holley and Chad Johnson are also out.
Then there’s South Florida. State Rep. Hillary Cassel, who left the Democratic Party after the 2024 election, lost to a Democrat. Turns out that flip to ride the 2024 red wave wasn’t the best move.
And state Rep. Fabián Basabe, who spent much of his tenure in the headlines for all the wrong reasons, was booted from his Miami Beach seat.
The Senate was even more humbling. Senate President Pro Tempore Jason Brodeur, the chamber’s No. 2, lost his Seminole County seat to Maitland Mayor John Lowndes by about 12 points. Brodeur had touted more than $130 million in budget wins for his district. It didn’t matter.
And in Senate District 14, Democrat Brian Nathan beat Republican Josie Tomkow for a second time this year.
Again, the GOP still controls the Legislature. But a lot of the party’s good colleagues — and Basabe — got the boot this week amid voter frustration, even if losses weren’t as bad as in other states. We’ll have to see who takes another shot in 2028.
The biggest loser: Blue wave. “Almost” only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.
Nationally, Democrats had a night for the history books. They handily flipped the U.S. House and Senate, winning Senate seats in previously red states, and picked up governorships in places like Georgia.
Florida got only a few sprinkles of that wave.
We already mentioned the legislative wins. U.S. Reps. Kathy Castor, Jared Moskowitz and Darren Soto survived districts Republicans redrew specifically to beat them. Pia Dandiya held onto the open seat in Florida’s 22nd Congressional District.
But for a lot of Florida Democrats, Tuesday was a near-miss.
Bale Dalton lost to Ryan Elijah in Florida’s 7th Congressional District by about 1,700 votes. Leela Gray came up short against U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, in part due to a third candidate playing spoiler. In Miami-Dade, Nicole Locklin fell just shy of unseating U.S. Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart, and Eliott Rodriguez narrowly trails U.S. Rep. María Elvira Salazar.
All in all, Democrats appear to have lost four congressional contests by about 7,000 votes combined.
Statewide was the same story. Jolly, Nixon and all three Democratic Cabinet candidates landed somewhere between 48% and 49%. That’s closer than any Democrat has come in years, but it still wasn’t enough.
There’s no shame in coming close in a state with 1.5 million more Republicans than Democrats on the voter rolls. Democrats turned out strong and independents broke their way.
But Florida Democrats spent this cycle telling everyone this was the year. As votes began coming in Tuesday night, it looked like it might be. Then Florida reminded everyone it’s still red.
The wave that swept the rest of the country broke just before hitting Florida’s shore. And the result is a lot of Democratic candidates on the outside looking in as the blue team celebrates elsewhere.
