In a loaded midweek matchday, NYCFC claimed a late 2-1 win over Atlanta United, and Red Bull New York suffered a heartbreaking 3-2 loss dealt by the New England Revolution.
NYCFC picked up their first win since Sept. 12, their first in their last seven games. But with Toronto and Columbus winning, they find themselves in 12th place with 38 points.
Despite starting the evening in a playoff spot, Red Bull NY find themselves outside the top nine after a 2-0 Columbus Crew win over FC Dallas. They sit two points behind the final spot with 39 points.
The schedule ahead for NYCFC and Red Bull NY
On paper, both teams have similar schedules when it comes to strength, although Red Bull NY have a slightly larger hill to climb.
NYCFC will stay at Citi Field on Halloween to take on CF Montréal, dead last in the Eastern Conference and 29th in MLS overall. After that, their Decision Day matchup will be against DC United, who were eliminated from playoff contention with Wednesday’s 2-1 loss to Toronto.
Red Bull NY have the hardest first match of the two, facing the league leaders on Sunday in Nashville SC. Their Decision Day matchup shouldn’t be as hard, as they take on Atlanta United.
The Boys in Blue have the advantage of playing against two opponents who have nothing to play for, and should use that to their advantage.
The Supporters’ Shield winners in Nashville already have a win over RBNY this season, and are looking to break the single-season points record set by Messi and Inter Miami in 2024.
Both teams having something to play for will add a great level of intensity to RBNY’s most important match this season.
What needs to happen for both teams?
The most obvious route for both teams is to win outright. This is easier said than done, seeing how both teams have played in recent weeks.
Until Wednesday’s victory, NYCFC had not performed well down the stretch, failing to put up so much as a strong performance over their previous seven games. They failed to win against Chicago where they led from the 20th minute and played an entire half a man up. They showed no intensity in the 1-1 draw at home to LAFC.
At long last, will they be able to show the heart they need to qualify in the last two matches of the season?
Red Bull NY, on the other hand, has shown the intensity, but are struggling to produce in front of goal.
Against Toronto FC, they spent almost 70% of the game on the ball, putting up 15 shots, and scored none of them. The same story was told against DC United the game before. New York spent 74% of the game holding the ball and had an expected goals (xG) of 2.94 with 24 shots. They only scored once in the 2-1 loss. Against the Revs, Red Bull NY outshot their opponent 20-9 and also led in shots on goal 11-4.
Will they be able to finish in the final third as much as they can create?
Along with needing to gain points themselves, both teams need to rely on outside help.
Columbus holds the last playoff spot with 41 points. In the unlikely scenario everyone else loses both remaining games and NYCFC win both, the Boys in Blue would overtake the last spot with 44 points. Anything less than two wins basically ends their season.
Red Bull NY are in a similar situation, but have a bit more leeway than their crosstown rivals. Should Columbus lose both games and RBNY win at least one, they leap over Crew with one more point at 42. Even if Toronto matches their win, RBNY would still hold the spot via tiebreaker.
It won’t be easy, but this is what needs to happen if either team wants to compete for the MLS Cup.
