Republicans lead four of the five statewide races on Florida’s General Election ballot by about 10 points in a new James Madison Institute poll, and the fifth, the race for Chief Financial Officer, is tied.
Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly 52% to 42% for Governor among likely voters, with 3% undecided. Among all registered voters, Donalds leads 48% to 39%.
U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody leads Angie Nixon by the same margin, 52% to 42%. Attorney General James Uthmeier leads José Javier Rodríguez 50% to 40%, and Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson leads Joey Mendoza Atkins 50% to 39%. Undecided voters range from 3% in the Governor’s race to 8% in the Agriculture Commissioner race.
Republican Blaise Ingoglia and Democrat Annette Taddeo each have 43% for CFO among likely voters, with 10% undecided, the largest share in any race. Ingoglia leads 40% to 38% among all registered voters.
Amendment 3 has 63% support among likely voters, with 21% opposed and 15% undecided. It needs 60% to pass. Among all registered voters it is at 59% to 22%, with 19% undecided.
The amendment would raise the homestead exemption for non-school taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, and cut the annual cap on assessment increases for non-homestead property from 10% to 5%. JMI says 66% of Republicans, 52% of Democrats, and 54% of independents back it.
JMI’s July survey had 76% of likely voters in favor before they heard about tradeoffs and 55% after. A University of North Florida poll that month found 61% support, falling to 45% once respondents heard the measure would cost local governments $11.86 billion in revenue.
Mason-Dixon found 55% support, 26% opposed, and 19% undecided among 625 likely voters from Sept. 28 through Oct. 1. A Stetson University poll fielded Sept. 14-21 had it at 51%. A St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics on Oct. 5-7 had 42% support, 35% opposed, and 23% undecided. Gov. Ron DeSantis told an audience at the University of Alabama last month he does not know whether the amendment will reach 60%.
The same St. Pete Polls survey had the Governor’s race tied at 45%, Moody ahead 47% to 45%, Uthmeier ahead 45% to 43%, and Ingoglia ahead 44% to 42%. Mason-Dixon had Donalds ahead 48% to 41% and Moody ahead 50% to 40%. A YouGov survey of 3,813 likely voters had Donalds ahead 47% to 45% and Moody ahead 49% to 44%. Stetson had Donalds ahead 51% to 39%.
The James Madison Institute commissioned the poll, which Targoz Market Research conducted Sept. 28 through Oct. 4. JMI read respondents the full ballot summary before asking how they would vote on Amendment 3.
The survey of 1,200 registered voters, 857 of them likely voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.77 percentage points. The margin is larger for the likely-voter results.
Republicans hold an advantage of more than 1.5 million active registered voters over Democrats, 5.65 million to 4.1 million as of Aug. 31. That is 42% of the rolls to 30%, with 28% registered with no party or a minor party. Respondents identified as 42% Republican, 30% Democratic, and 27% independent.
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Ed. note: This story was drafted with assistance from AI. Editorial judgment, sourcing, and final review were performed by Peter Schorsch and the Florida Politics editorial team.
