Another analysis upgrades David Jolly’s chances in November, contingent on donors backing him

The provisional good news continues for Democrat David Jolly’s gubernatorial campaign, albeit with the caveat that he can step up his fundraising.

Inside Elections moves the race against Republican Byron Donalds from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican,” putting Jolly “in the hunt” but saying he needs a “benefactor.”

If this sounds familiar, it’s because other ratings bumps have been conferred of late with similar qualifications.

The Cook Political Report also says the race is “likely Republican” and that Jolly “needs a significant financial boost” to compete. Sabato’s Crystal Ball also had previously re-rated Florida’s gubernatorial race as a “likely” Republican win.

Unfortunately for Jolly, Donalds continues to dominate in terms of cash on hand.

As of Aug. 21, Jolly had less than $3 million to spend between his campaign account and his political committee. Donalds had $57 million on hand as of the same date.

That said, more up-to-the-minute reporting on Jolly’s political committee’s website gives Democrats some cause for guarded optimism.

Among the big checks that have come in since Aug. 21: a $1 million contribution from Donald Sussman, the Founder, Chairman, and Co-Chief Investment Officer of the Paloma Fund; $500,000 from the American Federation of Teachers COPE Dynamics; and $100,000 from Gladys Cofrin, a serial donor to Democratic causes and candidates.

Donalds continues his strong fundraising, including a $1 million contribution from Morgan and Morgan to his political committee since the last fundraising report was filed.

Jolly has played it off.

“The more money Byron spends, the worse his numbers get,” Jolly said last week at the Capitol.

Yet questions remain about whether the Democratic nominee is consolidating the party.

While John Morgan going with the Republican in this race isn’t a complete surprise, at least one endorsement for Donalds Thursday was more shocking: that of Cynthia Moore Chestnut.

Chestnut, a former lawmaker and Chair of the Alachua County Democrats, was a key adviser and friend to Andrew Gillum, the Democratic nominee in 2018 who came very close to defeating Ron DeSantis.