One Election Day down, one to go.
Candidates, campaign teams and others in The Process — and those in the media who cover them — just ended a whirlwind of a few weeks leading into Tuesday’s Primary.
We’ll have more on those results in just a bit, but now we turn toward a questions that has plagued consultants, donors and many others for several cycles now: Is Florida in play?
On the one hand, it seems hard to believe that a state where Republicans so thoroughly for two straight cycles could be a true toss-up.
In 2022, Gov. Ron DeSantis won a second term by more than 19 points. Then-U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio won re-election by more than 16 points.
That came just two years after Donald Trump won the state over Joe Biden by just over 3 points. So was 2022 just an aberration?
Nope. In 2024, Trump and U.S. Sen. Rick Scott each won by more than 13 points. That’s two straight cycles where top-of-the-ticket statewide Republicans won by 13-19 points, a result of Florida’s voter registration numbers shifting sharply in favor of Republicans the past few years.
So I think we can throw out Florida’s baseline being a true toss-up state. But what, exactly, is the baseline?
Is it 13 points, and Rubio and DeSantis overperformed a bit in 2022? Or did Republicans massively overperform both cycles and Florida’s now-natural state is more like an advantage for the GOP in the high single digits?
Those gradients matter in a cycle expected to be favorable to Democrats. A blue wave can definitely help candidates make up some lost ground.
But it depends on just how much ground needs to be made up. No doubt Democratic consultants here will try to convince donors in the state and beyond to empty their pockets so Florida can flip blue. And there are swingier districts in Congress, the Legislature and local races where that is likelier to happen.
But here’s the thing: Florida was (rightfully) presumed to be a purple state cycle after cycle after cycle until the last few years gave proof that it wasn’t. For that perception to flip again, Democrats will need to do more than just talk and raise money. They’ll need to win.
In other words, Florida remains a red state until proven otherwise.
Now, it’s on to our weekly game of winners and losers.
Winners
Honorable mention: Candidates who hustled. A handful of determined contenders showed that door-knocking, relentless organizing, and pure grit can still beat big money and big names on Primary night.
State Rep. Angie Nixon turned a shoestring operation into one of the cycle’s biggest upsets, defeating better-funded former Lt. Col. Alex Vindman by roughly 12 points to capture the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination despite being outraised more than 16-to-1.
She drove herself across the state, leaned on union volunteers and church networks, and built a people-powered campaign that proved everyday organizing still counts in a red state.
Emily Duda Buckley also showed grit in locking down the Republican nomination in the open House District 38 by defeating Marcus Hyatt after months of steady local outreach in Seminole County. The fifth-generation Florida farmer and foster-care advocate collected endorsements from Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson and a string of former lawmakers while focusing on family issues and fiscal restraint that resonated with Primary voters.
Former Gov. Charlie Crist dominated the crowded St. Petersburg mayoral Primary, finishing first with about 35% of the vote and forcing incumbent Ken Welch into a November runoff after Welch managed just 21%. Crist’s well-funded, high-visibility effort raised more than $2 million and assembled a broad coalition that included former Mayors and community leaders, giving him broad support heading into November.
Austin Rogers emerged from an eight-candidate Republican free-for-all in the open Florida’s 2nd Congressional District, outpacing better-funded rivals including Keith Gross and Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power. The former Rick Scott General Counsel and Panama City native leaned on deep Panhandle ties and a disciplined ground game to claim the nomination in a sprawling North Florida seat that heavily favored any Republican nominee.
Ryan Elijah pulled off a rare upset of an incumbent by defeating scandal-plagued incumbent U.S. Rep. Cory Mills in the 7th Congressional District Republican Primary. The former Central Florida television journalist picked up key local law-enforcement endorsements that helped voters move past Mills’ lingering controversies.
And Jim Schwartzel outlasted a chaotic 10-candidate field in the open Florida’s 19th Congressional District, defeating Trump-endorsed Catalina Lauf. The Southwest Florida radio executive and media owner ran a steady, locally rooted campaign that emphasized term limits and practical conservatism, proving that early organization can overcome late national endorsements in a crowded race.
These candidates treated the Primary like a full-contact contest rather than a formality, and the results rewarded that effort.
Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: Ashley Moody, David Jolly. While Nixon deserves credit for pulling out the win Tuesday, both Moody and Jolly stand to be the biggest winners from Nixon’s upset victory.
For Moody, the Republican incumbent appointed by DeSantis to fill Rubio’s seat, the matchup against Nixon simplifies the General Election path in a solidly red state where a self-described democratic socialist will likely be viewed as too far left for most voters.
At the same time, Nixon’s nomination offers an unexpected lift to Jolly’s long-shot bid for Governor.
As a Black progressive who energized Democratic Primary voters, Nixon has the potential to drive turnout among the party’s base, particularly Black voters whose enthusiasm remains a necessary — if not sufficient — ingredient for any Democrat hoping to compete statewide in Florida.
Whether that surge materializes will determine if the progressive upset becomes a net positive for the top of the Democratic ticket or simply hands Moody an easier path to a full term.
The biggest winner: Byron Donalds. Donalds secured the Republican nomination for Governor with a decisive victory that mirrored months of polling dominance and closed out a long, well-funded campaign.
Donalds captured roughly 48% of the vote, nearly doubling Lt. Gov. Jay Collins at 25% while leaving James Fishback and former House Speaker Paul Renner in single digits far behind.
Trump’s early and enthusiastic endorsement, combined with a fundraising operation that amassed more than $100 million across his campaign and allied committees, allowed Donalds to maintain a commanding lead from the outset and weather attacks from a crowded field of challengers.
The Southwest Florida Congressman had led every major public poll by double digits for months, turning what could have been a fractious Primary into a relatively straightforward path to the nomination.
In his victory speech, Donalds struck a unifying tone, calling for a united Republican Party as he pivots to the November General Election against Jolly.
After navigating a year-plus campaign that tested party factions and outsider challenges, Donalds has successfully landed the plane and now stands as the favorite to succeed term-limited DeSantis.
Losers
Dishonorable mention: Politicians who live online. A crop of candidates who built their campaigns around social media hype, livestreams and digital armies discovered Tuesday that clicks do not equal votes.
James Fishback, the investor and online provocateur who positioned himself as an outsider alternative to the establishment, finished a distant third in the Republican Primary for Governor with roughly 10.5% of the vote.
Despite relentless attacks on Donalds and a following that thrived on memes and viral clips, Fishback never converted digital energy into a serious threat and watched Donalds cruise to nearly 48% support.
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, who spent months insisting the Governor’s race remained fluid and that Donalds was vulnerable, managed only 25% and saw his late-night running-mate announcement collapse along with his hopes (more on that in a second).
Influencer Dan Bilzerian, the self-styled “King of Instagram” who poured personal money and inflammatory online content into a challenge against U.S. Rep. Randy Fine, collected about 19% in the Primary for Florida’s 6th Congressional District and finished well behind the incumbent.
Each sold supporters a narrative of imminent upset that evaporated once actual ballots were counted, proving once again that an online presence alone cannot substitute for a genuine ground game or, hear us out, actually making an effort to appeal to a broad swath of voters and not just angry people online. Just a thought.
Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: Kevin Guthrie. The (now former) Division of Emergency Management (DEM) Director gambled his high-profile post on an abbreviated political adventure and lost both within roughly 24 hours.
Collins, trailing badly in the Republican Primary for Governor, announced Guthrie as his running mate in a last-second Hail Mary bid Monday evening in an attempt to wrangle attention just hours before voters headed to the polls.
The pair had apparently not informed DeSantis, who appointed Guthrie to lead the agency in 2021, before making the move public.
Collins finished far behind Donalds the next day, and DeSantis promptly accepted Guthrie’s resignation.
Or did he? In a farewell message to DEM staff, Guthrie admitted the past 36 hours “didn’t go at all as I thought,” acknowledging the choice was a long-shot gamble yet expressing shock that he would lose his job simply for joining the ticket.
That shock seems to imply he didn’t resign willingly, though DeSantis repeated that version of events later in the week.
Either way, the sudden exit left Florida without its longtime emergency manager in the middle of hurricane season all for an always doomed political gamble. What, exactly, was the point of this?
The biggest loser: Mike Caruso. The Palm Beach County Clerk of Courts saw his political career disintegrate overnight after his arrest on five felony charges related to the alleged sexual abuse of a young relative under the age of 12.
If proven true, then good riddance.
The 67-year-old former state Representative and longtime DeSantis ally now faces counts — which he denies — of kidnapping, lewd or lascivious molestation, lewd or lascivious exhibition, luring or enticing a child, and child abuse causing mental injury.
Caruso spent years in the House before a high-profile appointment as Clerk exactly one year before the arrest.
And that’s where, at least as much as possible in a horrific case like this, there may be some karmic justice here. Because during his tenure in the House, Caruso voted for legislation expanding the death penalty for those who sexually exploit or rape children under 12, positioning himself as a tough-on-crime conservative.
If convicted, he’ll rightly see the effects of that vote from the other side. DeSantis suspended him within hours and later remarked that the former ally would face “a world of hurt” if convicted. You got that right.
