Good Monday morning.
To commemorate the opening of Early Voting across the state this week, the Florida House Republican Campaign Committee honored Norman Rockwell’s 1944 “America at the Polls” with an updated version for Florida’s 2026 General Election.
___
Sunday’s Brunch, our pop-up newsletter about the 2026 Election Cycle and more, posted a 40% open rate, one of the highest for any Florida Politics newsletter this year. Thank you for reading.
Next Sunday’s edition comes out Oct. 25, nine days before Election Day and the first Sunday of early voting. Campaigns, send us your plan for that day: where the candidate will be, what events are on the calendar, and who is out knocking doors.
Consultants, that includes the races you are running for clients.
Email [email protected] by Friday afternoon.
___
The Republican Party of Florida is greeting the start of early voting with a new digital ad that turns David Jolly’s own words about Gov. Ron DeSantis against him.
The spot, “David Jolly Would Undo What Ron DeSantis Built,” is cut from Jolly’s years of cable news commentary: “I don’t think Ron DeSantis is the smartest person in the state,” “a uniquely unlikable person on the campaign trail,” and “Ron DeSantis actually lies about his COVID record.” He also said, “I don’t support Ron DeSantis, and I do think Ron DeSantis’ agenda is dangerous,” and accused the Governor of being “determined to run for the White House to represent white America.”
The party will run the ad statewide to Republican voters, pairing it with a push to vote early.
“Ron DeSantis turned Florida into the free state of America. He stood up to (Dr. Anthony) Fauci, kept Florida open, cut taxes, and fixed our schools and universities, and families from across the country moved here because of it,” RPOF Chair Evan Power said. “David Jolly has spent years attacking every bit of that record on cable news, and now he wants the keys to the Governor’s Mansion so he can undo it. Florida Republicans know what’s at stake. Early voting starts today, and we will turn out to keep Florida free by electing Byron Donalds.”
To watch the ad, please click the image below:
— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —
—@Pontifex: I would like to thank all those who have prayed for me in recent days. I wish to express my particular gratitude to the doctors, nurses and all the staff of the Gemelli Hospital. This experience has made me feel particularly close to all those who are living with illness or infirmity. Now that I have overcome this delicate phase, I will gradually resume my activities, always with God’s help and your prayers.
Tweet, tweet:
Tweet, tweet:
—@AshleyMoodyFL: My opponent, a socialist, runs a bookstore called Cafe Resistance, quotes the communist manifesto, and celebrates those that attack police. What you see in France, communists taking to the streets, burning buildings to the ground, and attacking the police, starts like this.
Tweet, tweet:
—@ESPNInsights: Miami will play a game as the No. 1 team for the first time since first time 2003 BCS National Championship Game. 🙌 This is the first time there has been three different No. 1 teams in a three-week span of a single season since Nov. 2012.
— DAYS UNTIL —
‘Six Kings Slam’ on Netflix — 2; Florida TaxWatch Fiscal Accountability Leadership Summit begins — 2; FEC Pre-General Report due — 3; General Election ballot request deadline — 3; Mandatory General early voting begins — 5; Meta’s new political and issue ad freeze begins — 8; General Election — 15; ‘Godzilla Minus Zero’ premieres — 18; ‘Wild Horse Nine’ premieres — 18; Florida Automated Vehicles Summit — 23; ‘Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol’ starring Johnny Depp premieres — 25; ‘Paper Tiger’ starring Adam Driver premieres — 25; Joe Biden’s memoir, ‘Promise Me, America’ is released — 29; New legislator training sessions — 29; Senate convenes for general organization and selection of officers — 29; ‘Madden’ premieres — 30; ‘The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’ premieres — 32; ‘Blade Runner 2099’ premieres on Prime Video — 37; ‘The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth,’ with Brad Pitt, directed by David Fincher and written by Quentin Tarantino, premieres in IMAX — 37; Committee Week #1 — 42; ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ premieres — 60; ‘Dune: Part 3,’ directed by Denis Villeneuve, premieres — 60; Committee Week #2 — 77; Committee Week #3 — 84; ‘Ahsoka’ season 2 premieres — 93; College Football Playoff national championship game in Las Vegas — 98; Committee Week #4 — 105; The 2027 Florida State Fair begins — 108; ‘Remain,’ directed by M. Night Shyamalan, premieres — 109; Grammys — 111; Committee Week #5 — 112; Super Bowl LXI — 118; Committee Week #6 — 119; Opening day of the 2027 Regular Legislative Session — 134; Tampa Mayoral Election — 134; ‘The Thomas Crown Affair,’ directed by and starring Michael B. Jordan premieres — 137; Jacksonville First Election — 141; Oscars — 146; Miami Marlins Opening Day/Home Opener — vs. New York Mets — 157; Tampa Bay Rays Opening Day/Home Opener — vs. Baltimore Orioles — 157; Democratic Mayors Association 2027 annual summit in Miami begins — 177; Jacksonville General Election — 211; ‘Star Wars: Starfighter’ premieres — 221; ‘Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 242; Citrus Series — Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins — 270; ‘The Bluey Movie’ premieres — 291; Citrus Series — Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays — 326; ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 424; 2028 South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary — 460; College Football Playoff national championship game in New Orleans — 462; 2028 Nevada Presidential Primary — 470; 2028 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary — 477; 2028 New Mexico Democratic Presidential Primary — 484; ‘The Batman Part II’ premieres — 487; 2028 Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary — 491; 2028 Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary — 498; Oscars — 503; ‘X-Men’ premieres — 564; ‘Miami Vice ’85’ reboot premieres — 578; ‘Lilo & Stitch 2’ premieres — 585; ‘Days of Thunder’ sequel with Tom Cruise and Anne Hathaway premieres — 592; ‘Incredibles 3’ premieres — 606; 2028 Los Angeles Olympics Opening Ceremony — 634; ‘Ghost Rider’ premieres — 648; 2028 U.S. Presidential Election — 750; ‘Black Panther 3’ directed by Ryan Coogler premieres — 788; College Football Playoff national championship game in Tampa — 826; ‘Avatar 4’ premieres — 1,159; ‘Avatar 5’ premieres — 1,887.
— TOP STORY —
“How Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown gave Florida Democrats a chance” via Daniel Castro of The New Yorker — President Trump’s immigration crackdown is reshaping Miami’s political landscape, creating an opening for Democrats in Florida’s 27th Congressional District. Democratic challenger Eliott Rodriguez, a former television news anchor, is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. María Elvira Salazar in a majority-Hispanic District Trump carried in 2024. Deportations, economic pressures and growing dissatisfaction among Latino voters have complicated Salazar’s re-election campaign.
Salazar initially embraced Trump’s immigration agenda, defending detention conditions at Alligator Alcatraz and avoiding criticism of decisions ending Temporary Protected Status for several immigrant communities. More recently, she released an advertisement warning Trump that immigration enforcement had gone too far, acknowledging concerns among Latino supporters.
The shift drew criticism from Trump, who amplified online attacks against Salazar. Rodriguez, meanwhile, reported increased fundraising interest as national political forecasters moved the District into a more competitive category.
Rodriguez is concentrating on independent voters, who account for approximately 30% of District registrations. His campaign emphasizes affordability, immigration enforcement and personal connections developed during decades covering Miami news.
Immigration activist Arianne Betancourt confronted Salazar over her father’s detention at Alligator Alcatraz. Betancourt disputed the assistance Salazar’s office provided, while the Congresswoman’s staff maintained it had offered help and resolved numerous immigration cases.
Despite Democratic enthusiasm, Republicans retain substantial organizational and registration advantages. Latino voters remain divided over immigration, economic policy and cultural issues. The contest illustrates how dissatisfaction with enforcement policies could influence voters without necessarily changing long-standing partisan loyalties.
— NAT’L MOOD —
“Trump approval hits record low, giving Democrats Midterm advantage” via Dan Balz and Scott Clement of The Washington Post — Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 33%, with 66% disapproving, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released two weeks before Election Day. Democrats lead Republicans by eight points among registered and likely voters in the congressional contest, up from three points among registered voters in July. Registered voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress to check Trump by 58% to 39%. Economic concerns are driving dissatisfaction, with 48% saying they are financially worse off than when Trump returned to office. His economic approval stands at 28%, while 72% believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. Democrats also hold their first advantage on economic trust in the poll since 2014.
“GOP finally won America’s most Hispanic county. Can they keep it?” via Daniel Allott of USA Today — Republicans ended more than a century of Democratic presidential dominance in Texas’ Starr County when Trump won the overwhelmingly Hispanic border community by 16 percentage points in 2024. The shift reflected frustration with Democratic positions on immigration, policing and cultural issues rather than wholesale changes in voters’ conservative values. Republican candidates Clarissa Gonzalez and Joel Villarreal, both former Democrats, argue their party better represents local priorities. But the GOP faces a new challenge as economic anxiety erodes Trump’s Hispanic support. Recent polling suggests inflation and household costs now outweigh immigration concerns for many Latino voters. November’s elections will test whether Starr County’s Republican realignment represents a lasting political transformation or a temporary rejection of Democrats.
— 2026 —
Byron Donalds launches bilingual ‘Bay of Pigs’ ad hitting David Jolly on socialism — The Donalds campaign released “Bay of Pigs,” a new English- and Spanish-language ad featuring Raymond Molina, a Bay of Pigs veteran who took up arms against the socialist dictatorship that destroyed his homeland. “I fought at the Bay of Pigs. I know what socialism is,” Molina says in the ad. “I lost my country once. I won’t lose another.” The campaign says Jolly would let socialists ruin the state, pointing to his remark that he would “welcome anybody in today’s Democratic Party” to campaign with him and his appearances alongside Angie Nixon, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. “Raymond Molina watched socialism destroy his country. He is not going to watch it happen to Florida, and neither are the millions of Floridians who came here to escape it,” said Ryan Smith, Chief Strategist for Byron Donalds for Governor.
To watch the ad, please click the image below:
“Donalds overstates Jolly’s offshore drilling lobbying, ignores anti-drilling record” via Samantha Putterman of the Tampa Bay Times — PolitiFact rated a campaign advertisement from Republican gubernatorial nominee Donalds Mostly False for misrepresenting Democrat Jolly’s lobbying history. The ad claims Jolly collected more than $5 million while lobbying to expand offshore drilling near Florida following the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster. Records show Jolly attended a 2011 meeting involving legislation that could have expanded drilling, but the $5 million represented his firm’s total billings across multiple clients and issues. His firm received $30,000 from the organization supporting the legislation. As a Republican Congressman, Jolly opposed offshore drilling near Florida, backed restrictions on exploration and supported extending the eastern Gulf drilling moratorium. Jolly now advocates eventually ending offshore drilling nationwide.
“Parents against out-of-state student surge find ally in Jolly” via Steven Walker of the Orlando Sentinel — That’s a sentiment shared by plenty of other Florida parents and by Jolly, who has dedicated a page of his campaign website to out-of-state enrollment and says he wants to give Florida high school students “preferred application status” at state universities. Donalds said he’d likely tackle the issue by pushing a hike to out-of-state tuition, which he said would help prioritize more instate admissions. “You did everything right, and yet we put up a gate before you could get to our university. That’s wrong,” Jolly said.
“Pat Neal contributes $25,000 to committee supporting James Uthmeier” via Marc R. Masferrer of The Bradenton Journal — Billionaire Manatee County developer Neal contributed $25,000 to a political committee supporting Attorney General Uthmeier’s election campaign, adding to his substantial financial backing of Florida Republicans. The Sept. 28 donation to Friends of James Uthmeier ranked among the committee’s largest individual contributions. The committee has raised more than $11 million since February 2025, while Uthmeier’s official campaign has collected more than $1.8 million. Neal also contributed more than $530,000 to Friends of Byron Donalds, the committee supporting the Republican gubernatorial nominee. That committee has reported more than $125.8 million in receipts, including $10 million from Ken Griffin and $7.5 million from Jeff Yass. The contributions highlight the influence of political committees in Florida elections.
“National Association of Realtors helps push pro-Amendment 3 committee over $21M raised” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — Florida Realtors aren’t the only ones funding their “Yes on 3” political committee to help get an increased homestead exemption over the hump next month. The National Association of Realtors is also ponying up, with a $2,016,500 donation on Oct. 9. As of that date, the committee had recorded $21,516,510, with roughly $7 million left to spend. Polling released this week from South Florida-based consulting firms EDGE Communications and MDW Communications, as well as from McLaughlin & Associates, shows the amendment at 50% and 53%, respectively, short of the 60% threshold for passage.
Happening tomorrow — U.S. Rep. Lois Frankel and state Rep. Rob Long hold a news conference on Amendment 3 with former Palm Beach County Administrator Verdenia Baker, SEIU, and West Palm Beach Firefighters IAFF Local 727: 1 p.m., West Palm Beach Fire Station 5, 700 N. Congress Ave., West Palm Beach.
New poll: Voters want leaders to tackle the full cost of healthcare — Florida voters want the healthcare affordability debate to go beyond prescription drug prices. According to a Morning Consult survey conducted for Voters for Cures, 66% of voters prefer a candidate focused on lowering health insurance premiums, compared with 34% who prioritize lowering prescription drug prices. The survey also found 64% would rather see policymakers address insurer practices that delay or deny care than focus solely on drug pricing. The findings follow a Legislative Session that featured significant debate over prescription drug pricing and healthcare affordability, suggesting voters are focused on the broader costs they face throughout the healthcare system, including premiums, out-of-pocket expenses, and access to care.
— MORE ELECTIONS —
“Bale Dalton outraises Ryan Elijah by 2-to-1 for quarter in now-open CD 7 race” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Democrat Dalton raised more than double what Republican opponent Elijah did in the third quarter, even after the GOP candidate knocked out an incumbent in a Primary. Now the Democrat heads to November with a cash advantage but in a District where Republicans still hold a voter registration advantage. “DC insiders’ bad bet on Ryan Elijah backfired. Now they’re deploying their dark money parachute to save this Hoosier and keep their rubber stamp in Congress,” Dalton Campaign Manager MG Darmody said.
“Leela Gray stresses blue-collar roots in ‘closing argument’ of CD 13 campaign” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — A late-cycle ad from congressional candidate Gray focuses on the Pinellas Democrat’s working-class roots. The 30-second spot, “Auto Shop,” shows Gray in a garage as she discusses how her family worked hard, even when they needed help. “Dad was a mechanic. He worked hard, but during tough times, we relied on food stamps,” she tells voters. Gray’s team said the ad will serve as a “closing argument” in her campaign to unseat Republican U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in Florida’s 13th Congressional District. It is backed by a six-figure buy and will reach voters on air and digital platforms ahead of early voting.
To watch the ad, please click the image below:
“Kathy Castor raises $2.2M in latest period, crushing Mike Beltran’s $458K” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — U.S. Rep. Castor raised nearly $2.16 million in the latest reporting period to defend her seat. That’s more than four times what Republican challenger Beltran raised in the same time. Still, thanks largely to a $2 million loan Beltran made early to his own campaign, he started October with more in the bank than the Democratic incumbent. Both Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball list the CD 14 race as a toss-up, making spending in the final weeks of the election critical.
— “Castor, Beltran clash at Tampa congressional forum” via Shauna Muckle of the Tampa Bay Times
— “Can Castor win in a District that favored Trump? Expect a close race” via Shauna Muckle of the Tampa Bay Times
“Sydney Gruters slightly outraises Kelly Kirschner, grows sizable cash lead in CD 16” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Republican Gruters holds a cash advantage over Democrat Kirschner in the race to succeed U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan. But the two candidates raised roughly the same amount of money in the last two months. But Gruters, wife of Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters, started the period with a substantial fundraising lead. She has now raised $1.57 million, compared with Kirschner’s $752,000.
— EVEN MORE ELECTIONS —
“Associated Builders and Contractors Florida East Coast backs legislative candidates across party lines” via Florida Politics — Associated Builders and Contractors Florida East Coast has announced its November endorsements, backing candidates from both parties in Florida House and Senate contests. Republican Sens. Alexis Calatayud and Ana Maria Rodriguez earned support in Senate Districts 38 and 40, alongside Democratic Sens. Lauren Book and Ashley Gantt in Districts 30 and 34. House endorsements include Republicans Hillary Cassel and Anne Gerwig, plus Democrats Rob Long and Debra Tendrich. The organization’s recommendations extend into County Commission and School Board races across seven counties. Chapter President Peter Dyga emphasized open competition, workforce development and efficient permitting as priorities for Florida’s construction industry. The endorsements give voters another perspective on legislative candidates as the Nov. 3 General Election approaches.
Happening today — Democratic Senate District 38 nominee Richard Lamondin will cast his first ballot for himself on the opening day of early voting in Miami-Dade County. Joining him will be his wife, Martina; son Leonardo; state Rep. Kevin Chambliss; Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chair Laura Kelly; and Romania Dukes of Mothers Fighting For Justice and South Dade NAACP President Herold Ford. The event begins at 9:30 a.m. at the South Dade Government Center, 10710 SW 211th St., Miami. Lamondin will deliver remarks outside the polling location after voting.
Walk this way:
— STATEWIDE —
Breaking overnight — “1st DCA orders Jack Campbell to explain Hope Florida grand jury leak under oath” via Peter Schorsch of Florida Politics — State Attorney Campbell must explain under oath how an unredacted Hope Florida grand jury report reached CBS News Miami despite a court injunction barring its release. The 1st District Court of Appeal is considering sanctions, appointing a special master and referring Campbell to The Florida Bar. Judges questioned Campbell’s suggestion that court clerks leaked the document, noting neither clerk’s office possessed it when CBS published it. Campbell previously acknowledged unauthorized disclosures to dozens of recipients. The court also ordered the report expunged, finding the grand jury exceeded its authority and violated secrecy laws. The investigation concerns $10 million diverted from a Medicaid settlement into political activities. Campbell had not responded publicly by Sunday.
—“Republicans want Hope Florida story silenced and jail for anyone who talks about it” via Michael Barfield of the Florida Trident
“The complicated environmental legacy Florida’s next Governor stands to inherit” via Kylie Williams of POLITICO — With just a few months left in his term, DeSantis is declaring victory. During his nearly eight years in office, the Governor has helped secure nearly $9.5 billion for water quality and Everglades restoration, and his administration’s environmental department has acquired more than half a million acres for conservation. Yet although Florida’s environmental nonprofits commend DeSantis for his accomplishments, some say his legacy is complicated, and most emphasize the work is not finished. “He certainly did not ignore it, and he put effort into accomplishing what I think he was promising,” said Pat Rose, Executive Director of Save the Manatee Club. Meanwhile, the two candidates battling to become the next Governor, Donalds and Jolly, are pledging to continue aspects of his environmental agenda. In late September, DeSantis implied the Everglades might not need his aggressive funding tactics in future budget cycles, fueling anxieties among advocates who fear the state’s commitment will sputter once he leaves office. This cycle, sprawling development and data centers have risen to the top of the issue list. Jolly has pledged to pause hyperscale data center construction, while Donalds has promised to protect the state’s natural resources from data centers and overdevelopment.
“Immigrant Medicaid crackdown ensnares eligible families” via Sharmila Venkatasubban of The Florida Trib — The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the tax and spending law Trump signed in July 2025, limits federal Medicaid funding for noncitizens to three groups: lawful permanent residents, also known as green-card holders; Cuban and Haitian entrants; and migrants from three Pacific island nations under the Compacts of Free Association. Refugees, people granted asylum who have not yet gotten green cards, and others admitted on humanitarian grounds lost eligibility Oct. 1. Still, 177,000 people in Florida are expected to lose coverage. In Florida, those new, complicated requirements have been handed to a beleaguered and understaffed state agency that a federal judge found this year could not reliably get far simpler eligibility decisions and notices right.
“Florida’s 2026 Government in the Sunshine Manual remains unpublished” via Jay Waagmeester of Florida Phoenix — Uthmeier has not published Florida’s 2026 Government in the Sunshine Manual, interrupting an annual tradition dating back at least to 1994. The guide, produced with the First Amendment Foundation, explains public records and open meetings laws, including legislative and court changes. Foundation Director Bobby Block says government records custodians are requesting the missing edition almost daily, complicating their work. Uthmeier’s office confirmed the 2025 edition remains the latest but offered no explanation for the delay. The foundation also has received no responsive record to its request for a draft. Democratic Attorney General candidate José Javier Rodríguez criticized the omission and pledged to resume publication. State law does not require the manual’s annual release.
“Feds say Florida car dealerships charged hidden fees, deceptive advertising” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) accused several Florida car dealerships of advertising low prices online, then jacking up the costs with hidden fees once customers showed up to buy. The FTC announced it reached a settlement with Greenway Auto Group after filing a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Florida. “As a result of these unlawful practices, Defendants overcharge consumers in over 92% of transactions, on average by more than $3,350 over the advertised price,” the lawsuit said. In one example, a used 2017 Honda CR-V EX-L was advertised online for $18,800. In reality, it cost $23,539.85 because the dealership tacked on $4,739.85 in fees, the lawsuit said.
— D.C. MATTERS —
“Fantasies of a Cuba invasion deferred: How Trump and Marco Rubio lost the hearts of Miami’s war-crazed Cuban exiles” via Kirk C. Nielsen of the Florida Bulldog — Disillusionment with Trump and Secretary of State Rubio has increasingly set in among Cuban exiles in South Florida, nine months after U.S. special forces invaded Caracas, seizing Venezuela’s autocratic President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores and killing 32 Cuban soldiers providing security for them. But for many exiles, the war fever has morphed into disaffection and anger at Trump, cracking one of his most devoted political bases in South Florida for the first time. Evidence of the fracturing has been abundant on South Florida’s Spanish-language talk radio shows, whose hosts and listeners have skewed heavily pro-Trump for a decade.
“Judge orders Diversity Lottery reopened as Florida overtakes California in new green cards” via René Rabeder of Florida Politics — A federal judge ordered the Trump administration to reopen registration for the Diversity Visa Lottery as Florida surpassed California in new permanent residents. U.S. District Judge Jinsook Ohta directed Rubio to announce registration details by Oct. 29 and open applications by Nov. 1. Federal statistics show Florida recorded 219,470 new green card holders in 2024, compared with California’s 217,420. Florida’s total increased 41% from 2023. The Lottery attracted more than 20 million qualified entries in its previous cycle. However, reopening registration does not end the administration’s separate suspension of Diversity Visa issuance, imposed amid national security concerns. Applicants may still interview, but visas remain unavailable.
“Susie Wiles helped set up Fox interview ahead of Press Secretary’s exit” via Sophia Cai, Will Steakin, and Connor Stringer of POLITICO — White House Chief of Staff Wiles helped set up Katie Zacharia’s appearance on Fox News, where the embattled new Press Secretary struggled to answer questions about her rocky first days on the job, according to two people familiar with the internal dynamics. She was ousted hours later. A senior White House official said, “Susie and Sean do talk, but Susie did not need to feed her to Sean or anybody else. It’s not her style.” The official said Sean Hannity “wasn’t the nail in her coffin”; her Fox & Friends hit the next morning was, “as well as her weird answer on being a lawyer.” White House Communications Director Steven Cheung called the reporting on Wiles’ involvement “speculation.” A Fox News insider pushed back on any notion of a “sanctioned” hit: “It was clear by the end of this week that she did herself in with her own performance.” Fox News Media said Hannity decides who he interviews and what he asks, and that Wiles and spokesperson Danielle Alvarez had nothing to do with the booking.
“The Blair Witch Project” via Leigh Ann Caldwell of Puck — Trump has begun looking for someone else to take the fall for the Midterms. The guy at the top of the list: James Blair, his former Deputy Chief of Staff and political director who crafted the party’s Midterm strategy. Blair is best known as the architect of the GOP’s misbegotten mid-decade redistricting campaign, which burned through tens of millions of dollars. Now the effort is likely to backfire, especially in Texas and Florida districts that Republicans aggressively gerrymandered on the presumption that Trump’s 2024 coalition would hold. Blair has made himself an easy target. He and former Trump campaign manager Chris LaCivita recently traveled to Republika Srpska to provide “election assistance” ahead of the pro-Russian region’s elections, an obvious unforced error. The President has since described Blair and LaCivita as mere “consultants.” “Trump is just setting James up to take the fall,” one Republican operative close to the White House said.
“Bar complaint filed over fired White House Press Secretary’s lawyer claims” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Freshly fired White House Press Secretary Zacharia’s bad week may get worse after bicoastal Bar complaints, including one in the Sunshine State. Deerfield Beach activist and blogger Chaz Stevens, CEO of JoeSnitch.com, filed complaints this week in Florida and California alleging Zacharia repeatedly presented herself as a lawyer without a license. “The open question for Florida readers is whether the Bar applies (state law) to a White House official the same way it applies it to the notaries and paralegals it goes after every year,” Stevens told Florida Politics by email.
“Maxwell Frost says suspicious package prompted Orlando office evacuation” via Silas Morgan of the Orlando Sentinel — Suspicious mail forced the evacuation of Congressman Frost’s downtown Orlando office Friday, while Congressman Darren Soto reported a similar incident at his Kissimmee office. Frost said his staff was safe and authorities were investigating the package, which resembled suspicious mail sent to other lawmakers nationwide. Soto said law enforcement intercepted an envelope containing an unidentified substance after Frost warned him to monitor incoming mail. No injuries were reported. The incidents followed reports of suspicious packages reaching congressional offices in Washington and several states, including those of Democratic and Republican lawmakers. Federal authorities are investigating the broader pattern, raising fresh concerns about threats targeting elected officials.
— LOCAL: S. FL —
“Early voting begins in Broward and Miami-Dade counties” via Byron Tollefson of Local 10 News — South Florida election officials are preparing for early voting as Broward and Miami-Dade residents get their first opportunity to cast in-person ballots ahead of the Nov. 3 General Election. Voting locations open Monday at 7 a.m., with daily hours continuing through Nov. 1. Broward recorded more than 61,000 early in-person voters during August’s Primary Election, while Miami-Dade surpassed 58,000. Jolly campaigned in northwest Miami-Dade Sunday, emphasizing his political evolution and appeal across party lines. Donalds highlighted his campaign’s extensive door-knocking operation, saying volunteers have reached 1.2 million households. Both campaigns are intensifying voter outreach as South Florida prepares for two weeks of early voting.
“Project Tango lawsuit claims Maria Sachs should have recused herself” via Mike Diamond of The Palm Beach Post — The developer behind Project Tango, a proposed Palm Beach County data center, alleges Commissioner Sachs improperly prejudged the project before its July rejection. PBA Holdings claims Sachs should have recused herself because her Chief of Staff prepared a memorandum recommending denial. The lawsuit also accuses Mayor Sara Baxter, who recused herself after publicly opposing the project, of improperly influencing Commissioners. The County Commission rejected the development 5-1 despite staff recommendations for approval. Nearby residents opposed the project over noise, water consumption and electricity demands. PBA Holdings argues Commissioners disregarded county regulations and improperly delayed a required special-magistrate hearing. The developer seeks court intervention to advance its challenge to the county’s decision.
“Michael Hudak named to Broward County Housing Authority” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Deerfield Beach Vice Mayor Hudak is the newest member of the Broward County Housing Authority (BCHA) Board of Commissioners, appointed by DeSantis. Hudak, a U.S. Air Force veteran, is a founding member of the Deerfield Beach Economic Development Council, Deerfield Beach Rotary, and Deerfield Beach Kiwanis. He is 61 and holds a bachelor’s degree in business administration from Florida Atlantic University and an associate degree from Broward College.
Appointed — Lourdes Gimenez and Norman Gerstein (reappointed) to the Children’s Trust Governing Board of Miami-Dade County.
“Peggy Gossett-Seidman grateful for arrest of man who threatened her life over political mail” via Florida Politics — State Rep. Gossett-Seidman is expressing relief following the arrest of a Boca Raton man accused of threatening to kill her over campaign mail delivered to his home. Authorities say Luke Schaudler left threatening voicemails targeting the Highland Beach Republican, prompting concerns for her safety and that of her staff. Gossett-Seidman called the threats shocking and emphasized that candidates and elected officials should never fear violence because of their political involvement. Schaudler faces a felony charge under Florida’s law governing threats to kill, although his attorney disputes whether the statute applies to voicemail messages. He remains jailed without bond, with another court appearance scheduled for Nov. 14. The case underscores concerns about threats against public officials during election season.
— LOCAL: C. FL —
“Orange County District 7 ads tout national themes: ‘Make America Great Again,’ ‘socialism’” via Ryan Gillespie of the Orlando Sentinel — National politics has spilled into a race for a seat on the Orange County Commission, as mailers charge that one candidate supports socialism and wants open borders, while another ad shows the opposing candidate wearing a pro-Trump “Make America Great Again” hat. The two candidates in the newly created District 7 seat, Patricia Rumph and Vicki Vargo, are both registered Democrats. “I’m all about getting things done; this is a nonpartisan race,” Vargo said. “Political party shouldn’t matter. I’m interested in parks and sidewalks.”
“Disney World road rage leads to arrest after witness says man pointed gun at Disney bus” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — A 25-year-old Kissimmee man was accused of getting out of his Jeep and pointing a gun at a Disney World bus driver who honked at him to go. David Charlot was arrested and charged with aggravated assault with a firearm after the alleged Oct. 6 road rage incident on a busy stretch in the heart of Disney World. “You can see Charlot step out of his Jeep, step toward the bus driver, then step back to his Jeep,” the arrest report said. “He then retrieved what looked to be a black handgun and pointed it at the driver. He then got back into his Jeep and left.”
— LOCAL: TB —
“Joe Redner, Tampa’s ‘strip club king,’ dies at 86” via Sue Carlton, Gabrielle Calise and Emily L. Mahoney of the Tampa Bay Times — Redner, Tampa’s outspoken, oft-arrested strip club mogul, described as his city’s most complicated patriot and its wild uncle, legal scholar, relentless candidate for office, political provocateur, medical marijuana advocate, and vegan, died peacefully in his sleep, one of his children, Joy Lynn Redner, posted. He was 86. Tampa gained its reputation as the strip club capital and the birthplace of the lap dance in part due to the outspoken Redner. He went to jail along with the dancers. He ultimately racked up more than 150 arrests on his own count. “Joe Redner was a Tampa original, a successful entrepreneur, a defender of individual liberties, and a man who was never afraid to stand up for what he believed was right,” Tampa City Council Chair Alan Clendenin wrote on Facebook. A reporter interviewing him in 2022 asked Redner if he had any regrets about his failed runs for political office. “Oh no,” he said. “I’ve never regretted anything in my life that didn’t hurt somebody.”
“Ken Welch keeps using taxpayer resources to campaign, and it’s no wonder” via Peter Schorsch of Florida Politics — St. Petersburg Mayor Welch is flailing as his re-election campaign continues to fizzle, and his desperation is on full display. Let’s start with his latest city-sponsored get-out-the-vote campaign. The Mayor posted a video reel on Facebook encouraging residents to vote, introduced himself as Mayor, and filmed it from the steps of City Hall. The video’s color scheme matches his trademark orange-and-green campaign palette. It breaks no election law, but it is a clear example of Welch using his office to campaign, an optics problem even if it’s not legal. He also has his “City Hall on Tour” series, where the Mayor pulls city employees away from their jobs to share information about city projects. For all the city resources and staff time that go into these events, no one shows up. It’s a failed experiment. But I get it. For Welch, this is the way. What else is he supposed to do when he’s flat out of money?
“Welch PC makes no cents, is almost out of cash” via Florida Politics — Welch’s re-election campaign faces a widening financial disadvantage against former Gov. Charlie Crist. Welch’s political committee, St. Petersburg Progress, raised nothing during the Oct. 3-9 reporting period while spending more than $16,000, primarily on consulting fees. The committee retains just over $11,000. Welch’s campaign account held less than $14,000 as of Oct. 2, with updated figures unavailable Friday. Meanwhile, Crist’s committee raised $81,500 and spent nearly $116,000 on advertising, mailers and voter outreach. Crist maintains nearly $400,000 across his campaign and committee accounts, compared with Welch’s dwindling reserves. With voting underway and Election Day approaching, the disparity underscores Welch’s limited resources to reach undecided voters in the campaign’s final weeks.
“Attacks, allegations permeate heated Hillsborough School Board race between Brittany Lyssy and Daniela Simic” via Divya Kumar of the Tampa Bay Times — School Board races in Hillsborough County are nonpartisan. But District 2 candidates Lyssy and Simic have weathered accusations and campaign scrutiny that have veered from the political to the personal, at times overshadowing their policies. Advertisements, push polls and online commenters have attacked the candidates over everything from their backgrounds to their backers to their homes, even pulling their families into the fray. Lyssy, a lawyer and former president of Tampa Bay Young Republicans, faces Simic, a longtime educator who previously worked for Hillsborough County schools, in a runoff election to take outgoing Board Member Stacy Hahn’s seat.
“Pinellas to vote on Vince Nowicki’s Flock camera ban after Bob Gualtieri’s fierce defense” via Jesse Mendoza of Florida Politics — Pinellas County Commissioners will finally vote Oct. 27 on Commissioner Nowicki’s proposal to sever the county’s ties to Flock Safety cameras and other automated license-plate-reader systems, bringing the fight over privacy and police oversight to a head. Sheriff Gualtieri has argued that license plate readers have become an indispensable law-enforcement tool, allowing investigators to identify suspects, solve violent crimes and locate missing people more quickly than traditional investigative methods. “We can’t not have it,” Gualtieri said. “We just have to do it the right way.” “These cameras, ALPRs, are essentially dragnet surveillance,” Nowicki said. Even approval would not eliminate automated license plate readers throughout Pinellas County.
— LOCAL: N. FL —
“Early voting begins Monday. Here’s where to go” via WUWF Public Media — Early voting begins Monday across Northwest Florida, giving voters a head start on the Nov. 3 General Election. Escambia, Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties have announced multiple locations for casting ballots before Election Day. Escambia and Santa Rosa sites will operate from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m., while Okaloosa locations will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting runs through Oct. 31, according to WUWF’s guide. Ballots include statewide races, a proposed property-tax constitutional amendment, judicial contests and local government elections. Pensacola-area voters can use sites ranging from libraries and community centers to county election offices. The roundup provides addresses throughout the three counties, helping residents find a convenient location as the election approaches.
“Ron DeSantis, Santa Rosa residents get in shouting match over school reopening” via Jim Little of the Pensacola News Journal — A group of angry Santa Rosa County residents confronted DeSantis in Milton on Oct. 16 over reports the state had pressured schools to open just days after Hurricane Isaias. The confrontation came as DeSantis held a news conference on Oak Street in Milton behind the Santa Rosa County School Board building, where he announced the state had formally requested a major disaster declaration from the federal government. Members of the crowd, which included school employees such as Jerilyn O’Brien, principal of Santa Rosa Online, shouted over DeSantis, asking why the Governor had told Superintendent Karen Barber that schools had to reopen just days after Isaias. DeSantis responded that wasn’t true. “I didn’t say you could or couldn’t (open),” DeSantis responded to O’Brien. “Well, I’ve never spoken to your Superintendent.”
“No Kings rally draws protesters to downtown Tallahassee” via Brianna Shaw of WCTV — Demonstrators gathered outside Florida’s Historic Capitol in Tallahassee Saturday for a No Kings rally, joining a wave of protests nationwide ahead of the Nov. 3 General Election. Participants lined both sides of Monroe Street, carried signs, and chanted while criticizing Trump administration policies. Some urged fellow residents to vote. Protester Charlotte Garnier cited immigration enforcement and concerns about federal benefits among her reasons for attending. Noreen Beattie said worries about election fairness brought her to the gathering and that the turnout offered reassurance. Organizers also planned demonstrations in nearby communities, including Live Oak and cities across the Georgia border. The Tallahassee event brought national political grievances into a highly visible local setting just weeks before voters head to the polls.
— LOCAL: SW. FL —
“Fed up with sprawl, developer influence, some Suncoast Republicans back Dems” via Alice Herman of Suncoast Searchlight — Frustration over development, infrastructure and political influence is prompting some prominent Sarasota and Manatee County Republicans to endorse Democratic candidates. Sarasota MAGA Patriots Chair Conni Brunni endorsed Democrat Julie London for Sarasota County Commission, citing concerns about unchecked development. In Manatee County, Republican Commissioner Jason Bearden endorsed Democrats Charles Smith and Reggie Bellamy for Commission seats, criticizing special-interest influence and inadequate infrastructure. Fellow Republican Commissioner George Kruse endorsed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jolly and congressional candidate Kirschner. The unusual cross-party endorsements reflect growing disputes over development restrictions, wetlands protections and Senate Bill 180, which limits local government authority following major storms. Political observers say local concerns can sometimes outweigh traditional party loyalties.
“Rallies across the U.S., Florida and Southwest Florida draw thousands to promote voting rights” via Michael Braun, Samuel Brucker and Amanda Whittamore of WGCU — Demonstrators gathered across Southwest Florida Saturday as part of nationwide No Kings rallies, emphasizing voting rights ahead of the Nov. 3 General Election. In Fort Myers, Keely Armstrong said she wanted residents of every political affiliation to cast ballots. Diane Scire of Estero appeared dressed as the Statue of Liberty and urged turnout. Organizers also reported demonstrations along an Estero Parkway bridge and in Sebring, Matlacha, Punta Gorda, Venice, Sarasota, Bradenton and Ellenton. Participants voiced concerns about inflation, immigration enforcement and the direction of the federal government. Some described the protests as an opportunity to exercise free speech and encourage neighbors to participate in the election. The gatherings unfolded as early voting approached across the region.
— TOP OPINION —
“Trump’s bubble is about to burst” via Maureen Dowd of The New York Times — A photograph aboard Marine One captures Trump surrounded by admiring aides as his administration confronts declining public support, internal rivalries and mounting controversies. The image, taken by White House photographer Doug Mills, offers a revealing portrait of a President increasingly insulated from political reality.
Trump leans toward Press Secretary Zacharia and Special Assistant Natalie Harp, whose devotion contrasts with growing tensions inside the White House. The photograph becomes a metaphor for an administration where personal loyalty frequently outweighs professional judgment and uncomfortable truths.
Zacharia’s brief tenure unraveled amid questions about her legal credentials and a widely criticized debut news conference. Even a challenging interview with Hannity exposed inconsistencies in her explanations. Trump subsequently removed her from the position.
Meanwhile, Chief of Staff Wiles faces reported internal challenges, including concerns about Harp’s influence and scrutiny surrounding outside business interests involving longtime advisers. The increasingly contentious atmosphere has produced damaging disclosures about competing factions.
The turmoil extends beyond personnel disputes. Allegations involving former Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle and former Kennedy Center leader Ric Grenell, alongside tensions over Ukraine and Russia, reinforce concerns about an administration distracted by controversy.
With the Midterm Elections approaching, declining approval ratings and voter frustration over rising costs threaten Trump’s political standing. Rather than confronting those problems, the President appears preoccupied with loyalty, personal grievances and internal disputes. The Marine One photograph captures a White House retreating into its own increasingly fragile world.
— MORE OPINIONS —
“Sloppy paperwork is bad, but depriving voters is worse” via the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — A Broward judge went too far by disqualifying Tamarac Commissioner Morey Wright Jr. over technical errors in his candidate paperwork, depriving voters of a choice in the District 2 race. Circuit Judge Michael Robinson ruled Wright failed to properly designate himself as campaign treasurer and identify his District. Challenger Mike Gelin, who filed the lawsuit three months after Wright corrected his paperwork, would win automatically unless an appeal succeeds. The ruling came days before early voting, creating confusion and potentially triggering a Special Election. Florida Supreme Court precedent favors substantial compliance with election laws rather than rigid technicalities. Wright made mistakes, but absent evidence of deception, voters should decide his political future.
“Let the rest of America whine. Rays fans know who they are in Tampa Bay” via John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times — Empty seats at Tropicana Field during the American League Championship Series have renewed criticism of Tampa Bay baseball fans, but the attendance numbers tell a more complicated story. The Rays drew approximately 34,000 fans for weekday games against Cleveland after attracting more than 40,000 against the Yankees. Postseason ticket prices doubled or tripled regular-season costs, putting some seats out of reach for fans. New owner Patrick Zalupski and executive Ken Babby have helped secure the franchise’s future through a Tampa stadium agreement, reducing long-standing relocation fears. With ownership cutting prices for potential remaining games, the challenge now is building lasting loyalty through affordability, accessibility and a stronger connection between the team and community.
— INSTAGRAM OF THE DAY —
— AI —
Moore’s third annual trends report calls 2027 an AI hinge year. — The Tallahassee-based agency releases M.Cast 2027: The Human & Machine Economy Monday at the Public Relations Society of America’s ICON conference in Orlando, where Terrie Ard, President and Chief Operating Officer, will present the findings. The report argues AI is moving into the middle of business, between brands and their customers and between workers and their own thinking. More of how an audience finds and chooses an organization will run through a machine first, and trust becomes the competitive advantage. Each of the seven trends carries its own “Trust Factor.”
Verified Voices, by Liz Underwood and Courtney Cox, takes on fake consensus, the public comments and grassroots support that can now be manufactured at speed. The report cites a California air quality district that received roughly 20,000 comments on a pollution rule; when it contacted 172 commenters, several knew nothing about comments filed under their names.
Cognitive Debt, by Ard and Nanette Schimpf, argues that judgment handed to machines weakens from disuse. It cites an MIT Media Lab EEG study of AI-assisted writers and BCG research showing workers deepest in AI oversight report 39% higher intent to quit.
Intent Intelligence, by D’Arcy Toffolo, says click counts measure little when 54% of people get what they need from an AI summary. Toffolo’s replacement is an “Influence Ladder” with five rungs, from delivered to acted on. “The machine gets stronger, but the human must too,” Ard said. The full report is at MCastTrends.com.
— ALOE —
“Pet adoptions and Halloween bring Clay County community together” via Arjun Mendiratta of WUFT — Halloween costumes, puppy kisses and new beginnings shared the spotlight at Clay County’s second annual Boo Bash & Barkfest. Families packed the fairgrounds Saturday for face painting, bounce houses, a petting zoo and plenty of treats for four-legged visitors. The biggest attraction was a chance to adopt dogs from Clay County Animal Services. Six pups arrived looking for homes, and three were adopted within the first hour. Tim Ellison and his family came just to look but fell for a sweet dog named Pooh. Vendors offered pet products, food and information about veterinary services. The celebration gave local businesses an opportunity to connect with neighbors while helping shelter animals find families. For some lucky dogs, Halloween brought a permanent home.
“Gainesville Car Show brings car fanatics together for a cause” via Samuel Rappoport of WUFT — From vintage military Jeeps to flashy Porsches, more than 120 cars and motorcycles rolled into Gainesville’s Butler Town Center Saturday for a show with a charitable mission. The sixth annual International Motorcycle and Car Show brought together collectors, families and enthusiasts for live music, free food and friendly competition. Proceeds benefited the Rotary Clubs of Gainesville Foundation, which supports community projects and international service efforts. Organizers said the event generated about $10,000 for the foundation. A BMW M2 captured the first People’s Choice Award, with 15-year-old Oscar Astrom accepting the trophy on behalf of his father. Beyond polished engines and prized paint jobs, participants celebrated friendships forged in garages and at gatherings across Florida. The cars impressed; community spirit stole the show.
“Hastings Ranch & Farm annual festival welcomes families for Fall fun” via Positively Osceola — Pumpkins, hayrides and corn cannons are back in St. Cloud as Hastings Ranch & Farm opens its annual Fall festival. The family-run Osceola County destination welcomed visitors Saturday and Sunday, with two more weekends scheduled through Nov. 1. Guests can navigate a corn maze, pick pumpkins, meet farm animals and enjoy horse rides, gem mining, face painting and live entertainment. Children can climb aboard a barrel train, while adults browse vendors or relax beneath sprawling oak trees. Owners George and Debbie Hastings originally envisioned a place to raise cattle, grow food and give their grandchildren room to explore. That dream has grown into a seasonal gathering spot for Central Florida visitors. The festival runs weekends from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m.
— HAPPY BIRTHDAY —
Celebrating today are Rep. Hillary Cassel, former Reps. Ramon Alexander and Brett Hage, WFSU’s Tom Flanigan, Indelible Solutions’ Jasmyne Henderson, our friend Rick Lindstrom of Shumaker Advisors, and Brandon Morales.
___
Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.
