As Gov. Ron DeSantis presumably prepared a new congressional map, his critics are bracing to sue over it.
Ellen Freidin, CEO of Fair Districts Now, said any new map considered to draw congressional districts right now would clearly violate the Fair Districts constitutional amendment passed by Florida voters in 2010. She still wonders whether a map will be produced ahead of a Special Session this week, and can’t imagine a legal justification for it right now.
“As far as I’m concerned, no map that would pass that would be legally appropriate,” she said. “There is no reason to pass a new map. We have a map that was approved by more than one court after it was passed in 2022.”
But nationwide, politicians expect DeSantis and the GOP-controlled Florida Legislature to approve new cartography, which may be a final volley in the redistricting wars waged in red and blue states over the past year. Lawmakers have made clear they expect the Governor to take the lead on the process.
Regardless, Democratic consultants predict that if a map gets passed and signed by DeSantis, lawsuits will be filed immediately.
“I am expecting a challenge, and there better be,” said Matt Isbell, a Democratic data consultant. “If there isn’t a challenge filed the second he signs a map, I am going to be furious, because there is nothing they can propose that is not just outright partisan gerrymandering.”
Freidin tends to agree, though she acknowledged it’s difficult to speculate about mapping motives while Florida still awaits the draft’s publication.
“The first fact to know is there are no public facts,” she said. “There is nothing per se illegal about a mid-decade redistricting. What makes it illegal is ‘Fair Districts’ says you cannot draw districts for partisan intent. The Legislature can’t draw with partisan intent. The Constitution says ‘shall not be drawn,’ whoever is drawing the districts. But no other excuse has been given that is a valid excuse.”
Trump has publicly pressured Republican-controlled state governments to maximize GOP-leaning House seats ahead of the 2026 Midterms. DeSantis has promised for months that a revisiting of lines would take place and has publicly scoffed at threats from Democrats to sue or to exploit a map that, by making Democrats more vulnerable, could also put some GOP incumbents in jeopardy.
“We are not going to be cowed by threats,” DeSantis said Friday.
Some GOP consultants tell Florida politics the late redistricting Special Session may aim to trigger the Purcell principle, which could lead judges to delay any legal challenge to maps until after the Midterms, at which point elections will already be settled.
Freidin thinks little of this.
“The purpose of the Purcell principle or doctrine is not to create confusion or changes in elections at the last minute. What this map would be doing is just that. Usually, it applies in a situation with a new map after a census, and there is no existing map under the census that would not be apportioned appropriately,” she said.
“In 2022, you couldn’t use the 2020 map anymore because of changes in population; we don’t have that situation now. Purcell, in this case, works for plaintiffs. Yes, it might take a long time to ferret out motivations, but that’s not a reason you can’t use the map used four years ago. There’s no new census. It’s turning Purcell on its head.”
Many suspect lawmakers have avoided any involvement in the map precisely because of legal challenges. After Fair Districts passed, multiple Senators were forced to testify in litigation over the redistricting process, which ultimately resulted in a congressional map passed by the Legislature in 2012 being thrown out.
One Democratic consultant said complacency this year doesn’t mean courts won’t find complicity.
“Lawmakers might not have produced an illegal map, but the Legislature is an accessory to illegal gerrymandering and a willing participant in a blatantly unconstitutional map rigging scheme,” one Democratic strategist said. “Everyone’s getting deposed.”
For months, DeSantis has predicted that the U.S. Supreme Court would force redistricting in a ruling in the Louisiana v. Callais case that could eliminate federal requirements to protect majority-minority districts. However, no decision has been published, and some predict none will be until it’s clear that the 2026 Midterms will not be affected.
Isbell said without a court ordering a redraw, or even providing a justification for new cartography, there’s no reason to embark on the process.
“I guess there is two scenarios. They pass some obvious partisan gerrymander that they expect the court won’t uphold, but may not rule on until after 2026, so basically you try and force a bad map through for just the Midterm, or you go for a more modest ‘excuse’ plan saying it’s about race to try and keep around through 2028-2030 elections,” DeSantis said.
“This is all just my perspective. I think, like most folks, there is no clarity on what is actually happening. I assume Dem-backed law firms are getting ready to file challenges because it seems it would have to be the case.”
Equal Ground Education Fund, one of the groups to sue Florida after the 2022 redistricting process, signaled it was already preparing to go to court again.
“What we see happening with the mid-decade redistricting effort is just one in a long line of attacks not just against Black Floridians, but frankly, all Floridians,” said Genesis Robinson, Equal Ground executive director.
Freidin said even if litigation doesn’t give lawmakers pause, there could be political consequences in engaging in such a blatant illegal process.
“Even if I was a Republican legislator, I don’t want to be hung up in litigation the next five years,” she said. “I don’t want to be called someone who does unconstitutional things.”
