One of the nation’s top election forecasters says U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor isn’t in as much danger as Republicans may hope.
Cook Political Report changed ratings on Florida’s 14th Congressional District to “Toss Up,” a change from “Lean Republican.” The change was part of a post-Primary shift in races in Florida and Michigan, all of which moved in Democrats’ direction.
Erin Covery, house editor for the election prognosticator site, explained that Florida’s new congressional map initially prompted a gloomy forecast for Castor, a Tampa Democrat who has served the Hillsborough County area in Congress since 2006. Under the new lines, which shift the District to Southern Hillsborough while shedding parts of the city of Tampa, around 55% of voters supported Donald Trump for President while Kamala Harris won 44%.
But with more polling data available, Castor appears to be in good shape regardless of shifting political boundaries, Covey wrote.
“Public and private polling shows Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor with an edge over the GOP nominee, former state Rep. Mike Beltran,” Covey wrote. “Now that the General Election matchup is set, we’re shifting this race from Lean Republican to Toss Up.”
Beltran emerged this month from a crowded Republican field with 46% of the vote over former state Rep. Kevin Steele’s 30%. If nothing else, Beltran represents less of a financial threat to the Democratic incumbent, Covey wrote.
“Beltran, a trial lawyer, has some capacity to self-fund. He loaned his campaign $2 million during the Primary and entered August with $1.9 million in the bank, slightly more than Castor, who has $1.7 million on hand,” Covey wrote.
“But it’s a far cry from the cash advantage that Beltran’s primary opponent, GOP state Rep. Kevin Steele, could have had over Castor. Democrats viewed Steele, who has a net worth of more than $150 million and spent $5 million on his unsuccessful bid for the House, as the slightly more formidable opponent. But Beltran, who is better connected to the conservative grassroots in the District, ran a stronger field operation.”
Of course, Castor, as a 10-term incumbent, would probably prefer better odds than a coin flip. But Covey notes there are still challenges ahead for the incumbent. Beltran was an ally of Gov. Ron DeSantis in the Florida Legislature, and DeSantis has signaled he will be selective in where he campaigns this year. And having Angie Nixon, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, as the U.S. Senate nominee could create problems for Castor running in a battleground seat.
“Castor’s incumbency will be a double-edged sword. After representing Tampa Bay for nearly two decades,” Covey wrote, “she’s fairly well-known and can tout her efforts over the years to bring federal funding to the city’s port as well as MacDill Air Force Base and local infrastructure projects. But she also has a long voting record for Republicans to pick apart.”
Notably, Sabato’s Crystal Ball already moved Castor into its “Toss-up” category in July.
Cook now lists seven Florida congressional elections as battlegrounds, and despite a generally hostile climate for Republicans, none of the competitive Democratic seats are listed any safer than “Toss-Up” for Democrats.
Castor sits in that column with Rep. Jared Moskowitz, a Parkland Democrat also drawn into a new, more conservative seat in Florida’s 25th Congressional District. Florida’s 22nd Congressional District, where no incumbent elected to run, remains cast as “Lean Republican,” with GOP nominee Casey Askar and Democratic candidate Pia Dandiya battling in November.
Meanwhile, the prediction site lists Florida’s 9th Congressional District as “Likely Republican,” as U.S. Rep. Darren Soto, a Kissimmee Democrat, seeks re-election in a District where more than 58% of voters chose Trump in 2024.
