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This year’s startling collapse of New York City’s reading scores, followed by last year’s big gains, has some experts asking: Did something go wrong with the test itself?
There is no clear evidence there is a problem, experts emphasize, but the unusually wide swing in scores warrants careful investigation, multiple testing experts told Chalkbeat this week.
“My instinctive reaction is there may have been an issue last year that we missed,” said Marianne Perie, who consults with states on testing. “This kind of big increase followed by a big decrease is surprising.”
Perie cochairs New York state’s technical advisory committee, a panel of experts paid by the state to oversee the testing process. She spoke to Chalkbeat about the trends in her personal capacity, she said. The committee is set to meet next month to review the results in detail and seek to better understand what might explain the changes, Perie said.
Half of New York City students were considered proficient in reading on last year’s tests, down 6 percentage points from the year before, according to preliminary results released last week. The share of third, fourth and fifth graders who met grade-level standards fell to levels similar to 2024 in both New York City and state.
The sharp test score swings in those grades immediately sparked theories about what could explain them. Some educators and families wondered if the transition to computer-based testing was a factor. Others pointed to a literacy shakeup in New York City that has been dominated by one controversial curriculum.
Last week, EdTrust-New York, a nonprofit advocacy group, called for an independent audit of the state’s reading tests. Officials “never adequately investigated or explained last year’s dramatic gains, making this year’s reversal difficult to interpret,” the group said in a statement.
J.P. O’Hare, a spokesperson for the New York State Education Department, said the agency “takes this decline seriously and will conduct a detailed analysis to better understand where students are experiencing challenges.”
Simona Beattie, a spokesperson for NWEA, the state’s testing vendor, said in a statement, “At this stage, we have not found any anomalies through our standard due diligence process, which includes corroborating results with an external third party.”
“Given this, we have high confidence in the accuracy of the results,” Beattie added.
In New York City, the share of third graders scoring proficiently on the reading test fell by 14 percentage points, after rising by 13 points the year before. There were also substantial shifts in fourth and fifth grade scores on the test in both the city and state. Seventh and eighth grade reading scores essentially held steady. Math scores ticked up across the state but were flat in New York City.
Schools Chancellor Kamar Samuels said in a statement that the scores merit “rigorous analysis so we can ensure we’re measuring what students are learning.”
Chart: Sophie Hayssen | Source: NYC Public Schools
The fluctuations in elementary reading scores were quite unusual and surprising, said Benjamin Shear, a testing expert at the University of Colorado Boulder. “It requires further scrutiny, questioning and digging.”
What’s Behind the Reading Score Drop? Experts Weigh Different Theories.
City officials and some outside groups took a victory lap after last year’s dramatic surge in elementary reading scores, arguing the major literacy curriculum overhaul was paying off.
Now, the teachers union is pointing to the declines as evidence of problems with the city’s curriculum mandate and threatened to withdraw their support. But that does not explain the broad test score declines across the state, including districts that have not made similar curriculum changes.
In general, testing experts, known as psychometricians, say that a number of theories are worth considering to explain large shifts in scores: changes in student demographics, testing practices, opt-out rates and educational policies.
Figures released by the city indicate there were no major changes in the number of test-takers in early grades. The share of city students considered low-income in elementary grades also held fairly steady. And while the state finished its transition in the spring to computer-based testing, that wouldn’t explain swings in fifth grade, where digital assessments have been the norm since 2024.
EdTrust-New York noted that in contrast to state scores, there was steady progress on interim reading assessments New York City schools administer at least three times a year.
Emily Oster, a Brown University education economist who has tracked test scores across the country, published a post on Substack this week questioning the plausibility of New York’s score changes. She suggested that there may have been a technical error in comparing the results year to year.
In an email to Chalkbeat, Oster acknowledged there is no definitive proof for this. But, she said, the reported results are “not consistent with nearly everything else we know about student learning.” She noted that fourth graders’ reading scores had jumped last year, but that same group of students, now fifth graders, have seen scores fall back this year.
Asked about Oster’s post, O’Hare from New York’s Education Department said: “Speculation is not a substitute for data … Our ongoing review of the preliminary data has not identified any of the issues she outlines in her conjecture.”
An over 200-page technical report documented the process to ensure the accuracy of the 2025 results.
Scott Marion, a testing expert with the Center for Assessment, said he’s naturally suspicious of a large change in scores that doesn’t persist the following year. To him, it’s implausible that the rise and fall of scores represents real differences in achievement or teaching practices.
“It doesn’t make sense to me,” he said.
Marion says that perhaps more questions should have been raised about the sharp score increase last year. In his experience, education officials are eager to have testing experts investigate unusual declines, but not unusual increases.
Andrew Ho, a Harvard professor who serves on New York’s technical advisory committee, said he believes the shifts probably point to real changes in student learning, even if the actual swings aren’t as extreme as the exams suggest.
“We should absolutely look at the test, but we should absolutely also look at what the test is likely revealing,” he said.
Matt Barnum is Chalkbeat’s ideas editor. Reach him at mbarnum@chalkbeat.org.
Alex Zimmerman is a senior reporter for Chalkbeat New York, covering NYC public schools. Contact Alex at azimmerman@chalkbeat.org.
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