Former Gov. Charlie Crist continues to dominate the six-person field for St. Petersburg Mayor, a new poll finds.
A St. Pete Polls survey taken this week shows Crist leading the pack with more than 34% support. Incumbent Ken Welch follows at 19%, with St. Pete City Council Member Brandi Gabbard in third at 15% support. No other candidate reaches double-digit support, with former St. Pete Fire Chief Jim Large posting 8.5% support, and Kevin Batdorf and Maria Scruggs tied at 3%.
In a hypothetical General Election matchup between Crist and Welch, Crist leads decisively 45% to 30%, with 25% still undecided under that scenario.
But here’s the first shocker.
Among those who say they have already voted — a metric widely considered one of the most reliable — Welch is in third place. There, Gabbard leads Welch at 14.5% to 12%. Under St. Pete’s charter, the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff in the General Election, which means Welch would be eliminated in the Primary should polling numbers hold.
And that’s where the second shocker comes in. Based on polling among those who have already voted, Gabbard would be eliminated too.
That’s because Crist is at more than 50% support among those who have already voted. A runoff is only held in the General Election if no candidate exceeds 50% of the vote. Right now, according to the poll, Crist’s 51% support among those who have already cast their ballot would allow him to win the election outright on Aug. 18.
It’s worth noting that these numbers are highly preliminary; only 19% of respondents said they had already cast a ballot, with 81% saying they plan to.
But even among those who plan to vote, but haven’t yet, Crist still has an overwhelming lead that could position him for an outright victory in less than three weeks. Of those planning to vote, 31% say they will cast their ballot for Crist, with just 21% saying they plan to vote for Welch and 15% saying they will vote for Gabbard. Under those numbers, there’s actually room for Crist to improve his position as voting continues.
What’s more, the poll was taken Monday and Tuesday, after a barrage of negative mailers attacking Crist from the Large and Welch campaigns filled St. Pete voters’ mailboxes. And it came before Tampa Bay Times Viewpoints Editor Graham Brink recommended Crist in the race, a nod that could further move the needle in Crist’s direction.
And with Welch and Gabbard polling so closely, it’s also worth noting the poll doesn’t reflect that Tampa Bay Times CEO Conan Gallaty recommended Gabbard, a move that left Welch with no nod from the Tampa Bay Times and several damning reminders of his administration’s track record.
The poll also has one loosely measurable metric that lends it credibility. While the race is nonpartisan and candidates’ political affiliations won’t appear on the ballot, it’s little secret that Large is a Republican. Republican voters are known to be less likely to vote-by-mail and more likely than other voters to vote later, including on Election Day. It’s a trend that has only increased under President Donald Trump because he repeatedly questions the security of vote-by-mail.
That trend is on display in the St. Pete Polls survey, with less than 6% of those who have already voted saying they cast their ballot for Large. That’s far fewer than said they support him, signaling Large voters have yet to cast a ballot.
Voters started receiving mail ballots about two weeks ago. Early voting begins Aug. 8 and runs through Aug. 16, with Election Day on Aug. 18. As of Thursday afternoon, voter turnout across Pinellas County, which includes more than just St. Pete, was at less than 6%, meaning there is still plenty of voting to come.
With the latest polls, voters might want to keep an eye on how the Crist campaign responds — does it go for broke and try to win it in the Primary, or gear up for a General Election matchup against either Gabbard or Welch?
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Ed. note: Michelle Todd Schorsch is the Chair of St. Pete Shines, a political committee backing Crist for St. Petersburg Mayor. Todd Schorsch is married to Peter Schorsch, the publisher of Florida Politics.
